11 replies to this topic

[mcleert]

dow theory (based on USA Markets), is meaningless----history is just history , old markets are gone. what do we have now------- history has not repeated, new markets (global), have and are coming on strong--------so the old market (USA) is dead. Seems to me---- we need a new theory!!! Dow theory was based on USA markets----------Not Global inflection!!!

[Russ]

Seems to me that the theory says the transports go down first because they are on the frontline of delivery to the retailers etc. When demand starts to slow from consumers then stores don't order as much and the transportation companies get less business. Eventually all this filters back to the manufacturers and the industrial stocks start to go down too. Why should this be any different for any other country besides the USA?

[da_cheif]

dow theory (based on USA Markets), is meaningless----history is just history , old markets are gone.



what do we have now------- history has not repeated, new markets (global),

have and are coming on strong--------so the old market (USA) is dead.



Seems to me---- we need a new theory!!!



Dow theory was based on USA markets----------Not Global inflection!!!

who the heck sed dow theory was wirf a ******** in the first place.....

[maineman]

dow theory (based on USA Markets), is meaningless----history is just history , old markets are gone.



what do we have now------- history has not repeated, new markets (global),

have and are coming on strong--------so the old market (USA) is dead.



Seems to me---- we need a new theory!!!



Dow theory was based on USA markets----------Not Global inflection!!!

who the heck sed dow theory was wirf a ******** in the first place.....

Charles Dow
William P Hamilton
Robert Rhea
E. George Shaeffer
Richard Russell...
Made a lot of cabbage for them! ...

But as good old Abe Lincoln says, u can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time....

[vitaminm]

dow theory (based on USA Markets), is meaningless----history is just history , old markets are gone.



what do we have now------- history has not repeated, new markets (global),

have and are coming on strong--------so the old market (USA) is dead.



Seems to me---- we need a new theory!!!



Dow theory was based on USA markets----------Not Global inflection!!!

DJT beats DJI in last 5yrs

http://finance.yahoo...amp...=l&c=^DJI

[milbank]

The Dow Theory is just common sense. The only thing that is still a mystery as it was when Dow wrote his editorials in the WSJ that later became known as the Dow Theory is... How do you know when for sure when the trend has changed? As Russ said, the DJT is a good indicator but, how long does it take for the DJI to go with it? That's why I prefer very short term stock price focused trading and leaving my long term stuff alone in mutual funds.

[danzman]

The Dow Theory is just common sense. The only thing that is still a mystery as it was when Dow wrote his editorials in the WSJ that later became known as the Dow Theory is...

How do you know when for sure when the trend has changed?

As Russ said, the DJT is a good indicator but, how long does it take for the DJI to go with it?

That's why I prefer very short term stock price focused trading and leaving my long term stuff alone in mutual funds.

Here you go

http://www.thedowthe...explanation.htm

This is how DT should be. RR and most of the others never get it right. It's currently on a sell signal
which is not how I see the market...but it's usually a good long-term timer.

D

[NAV]

The first book i read on TA many many years back, started with an introduction to DOW theory. I was never convinced of it's utility then and i am not to this day. Virtually useless theory on any timeframes.

[Russ]

Several instances can be seen on the long chart - of the dow transports and dow industrials compared - where the transports peaked first, the dot com era bull market being the most dramatic. The evidence is clearly there, I don't understand how anyone can deny it.

The most recent action as can be seen better on the shorter time frame chart shows the transports are now lagging the industrials so based on theory the industrials should peak soon. The transports should finish their lagging rally by November 5th +/-day.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.png
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.png

Edited by Russ, 13 October 2007 - 08:20 AM.

[danzman]

Several instances can be seen on the long chart - of the dow transports and dow industrials compared - where the transports peaked first, the dot com era bull market being the most dramatic. The evidence is clearly there, I don't understand how anyone can deny it.

The most recent action as can be seen better on the shorter time frame chart shows the transports are now lagging the industrials so based on theory the industrials should peak soon. The transports should finish their lagging rally by November 5th +/-day.

Read the link I gave. That's not how Dow Theory works...although you can always come up with your own. I just have to remind you that DT has been in use for over 100 years, so you're going to have to do a lot more research than what that chart shows..

Read the link...it's not a bad system at all for LT timing.

D