17 replies to this topic

[blitz99]

There is debate among cycle traders many places other than this board. One thing to maybe take into account is most world markets bottommed in mar and april 03 not oct 02. And as always you must look at longer time frames as well and guess which cycle has the most influence at the time. A very tough task. They are only one tool in your box. Look at you indicators during cycle turn dates, as stated here before they can invert and when they do it can be very ugly in my expeience. But i still like to use them and stay aware of possible turn dates. Below is a chart of the camp that thinks 06 was the low. Only time will tell.

Another try to get chart here.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1981-01-10&i=p46666626856&a=119086430&r=246.png

Just thought of something. I could be wrong but i think the longest time the four year has ever went was 65 or 66 months. That would be around mar april. Yep they are far from perfect. But Airdale88 has been on target as long as ive been watching here. No contest here.

One more thought notice how stochrsi was oversold on every other cycle except this one.

[grizzly]

Very interesting dcenqr! Thanks for sharing. I have a model that predicts a good market low at the end of February 2008 rather than end of January 2008 (with perhaps a double bottom in late March 2008). Any chance your good low would be 90 trading days in the future rather than 70 trading days? I guess we'll see what happens. By the way any chance of getting access to your blog?

[dcengr]

Let me add one more thing about this fractal I'm watching... There has been many little bottoms on this fractal, much like there has been many little bottoms in the current bull market. There is no little bottom of any sort between the last one and this one... none whatsoever.. I don't know what that means, but I interpret it to mean that when this uptrend ends, it won't go down in little fits and spurts... it will just go down down down until the bottom is reached. I know that's scary, because I like to pick bottoms as much as I like to pick tops. 70 trading days is a long time.. If the fractal is to continue, and the top isn't reached, the fractal implies there will be no small dips, but constant upside until the top is reached, at which point there is no minor bottoms but one big [bleeep] one.

[slupert]

yeah, its rough even mustering up enough courage to say the "C" word anymore. I believe there is yet another probabilty everyone chooses to ignore. A large correction, but with no immediate snap back as has been the case in the past. but a lagging underperforming market for a prolonged period of time, perhaps as long as a year or two. Just my two cents.

[airedale88]

There is debate among cycle traders many places other than this board. One thing to maybe take into account is most world markets bottommed in mar and april 03 not oct 02. And as always you must look at longer time frames as well and guess which cycle has the most influence at the time. A very tough task. They are only one tool in your box. Look at you indicators during cycle turn dates, as stated here before they can invert and when they do it can be very ugly in my expeience. But i still like to use them and stay aware of possible turn dates. Below is a chart of the camp that thinks 06 was the low. Only time will tell.


Just thought of something. I could be wrong but i think the longest time the four year has ever went was 65 or 66 months. That would be around mar april. Yep they are far from perfect. But Airdale88 has been on target as long as ive been watching here. No contest here.

One more thought notice how stochrsi was oversold on every other cycle except this one.

blitz, most world markets making visually obvious 4.5 yr lows around march 03 is the very important Hurst principle of commonality. this includes the US markets, despite the lower price lows of oct 02.

also, cycles do not invert in Hurst analysis.

[n83]

as long as one trades us indices/stocks, the us market being the most important of all bottomed in jul 02 momentum low and oct 02 as price low..period

[airedale88]

as long as one is trading US markets employing cyclic analysis they better understand that the march 03 time period was the true major cyclic low.

[n83]

as long as one is trading US markets employing cyclic analysis they better understand that the march 03 time period was the true major cyclic low.

i like to K.I.S.S...once every 4 (even numbered) yrs there is a major low (in the U.S. markets) much bigger than any of the other displaced this way/that way type of lows (allowances made to comprehend all kinds of time instances-g)..and that somehow fundamentals are 'responsible' when the cycles do not work..the cycles are an outcome/effect not the cause (unless folks just follow it and 'make' it happen like Fib nos..many many many times)

anyway agree to disagree

good luck all

Edited by n83, 14 October 2007 - 08:05 AM.