17 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

And he says the 4.5 year cycle is past us. I've been following one fractal with very very very strong interest for the past year or so. It has, in essence, overlapped with the lows on every occasion of this bull market. Yes, pretty much every one of them. For some reason, this fractal has problems matching the tops, but the bottoms.. well they're a darn good match. I don't know why, don't ask me. This fractal is predicting the mother of all bottoms to come up in 70 trading days. That would be 3 months from now. Yes I realize that's quite a bit away. I don't know how much higher the market will go. Like I said, this fractal sucks for picking tops. I don't even know how deep it'll go. But the fractal bottoms were getting deeper and deeper each time, and the current market has been dropping deeper and deeper each time. So I suspect if the pattern continues, this would be one of the biggest dumps of the bull market. Perhaps it may even kill the bull, I don't know. Now there's 1987 crash crap tossing around. I don't believe crashes can occur easily anymore. I do believe in 2002 style melt down, though. It can happen over a long time. Count down has started.. somewhere around in 70 days, which will be... around january I guess.

[NAV]

You know why i love Airedale. He has a methodology, he believes in it, and he is consistent. He puts his money where his mouth his, not just talk the talk. You know why i love da_cheif, even if his predictions sound outrageous. Cuz he has been right on so many markets and puts his money where his mouth is and rides it. So are you going short based on this research ?

[dcengr]

To answer your question, yes... I have plenty of other evidence that froth is pretty extreme, so I'm not relying on just this fractal data. I'd be crazy if I was. However, instead of taking profit where normal signals of oversold conditions and sentiment may tell me to abandon ship, IF and that's in caps for a reason.. the fractal starts to exert itself, I will let it ride much longer than I normally would.

[NAV]

Now there's 1987 crash crap tossing around. I don't believe crashes can occur easily anymore. I do believe in 2002 style melt down, though. It can happen over a long time.

Actually, i am going to disagree with you completely here. For a 2002 style meltdown to occur, you need to be already in a well established monthly downtrend. Money managers are not morons to liquidate persitently into a bull market. A monthly bear trend should already in place for them to capitulate in that fashion. A 1987 stlye is relatively a better bet, cuz it can come out of the blue and catch most unawares, where trend is not a consideration. However, personally, i am not betting on either. For 2002, we don't have the conditions. For 1987 style, they are not predictable by definition.

Edited by NAV, 13 October 2007 - 12:10 AM.

[dcengr]

Eh anything can happen. I'm just making one of 1000s of predictions posted on this board each day. But I've posted it here, for my record. If it materializes, I'll look like a friggin genius. If not, I'll be one of 1000 wrong predictions. I think most agree sentiment is pretty ripe right now. Doesn't stop the market from going higher ofcourse, nor does it foretell the kind of meltdown I'm describing. And as a neophyte cycles guy, I just want to understand if this is going to bear or not... guess we find out in a few months. I'll book mark this and check it later.

[NAV]

But I've posted it here, for my record. If it materializes, I'll look like a friggin genius. If not, I'll be one of 1000 wrong predictions.

Got you

If it does, you da FRACengr.

[101001000x]

For the record, 70 trading days from now is closer to Feb 1

[nicolasillo]

dcengr any chart to base your argument? Thanks

[maineman]

FWIW,

Terry Landry, known as "T Theory" feels that whatever "juice" we get here from this current rally could be the end of the bonanza that started in 2002/3

Terry is one of those guys you either "get" or not, but his work is pluperfect and really worth reading. Up to you whether you agree or not...

So I think its going to be interesting to see how Terry's heavily studied "T" cycles work with Airedale's magnificent cycle studies which are currently at odds for the "big" picture..

http://ttheory.typepad.com

mm

[arbman]

We have the 20wk cycle low at the end of December and early January, that's as close as you can get... Even if it blows off before December, the odds are still low that there will be a big cascading decline according to the moving average configurations into the future.

The major blue line below is the only hope for the bears to be crossed by the 20 wk cycle low. If the SPX meets the 1680 target very early by the middle of Nov , then there is a chance to have a big decline to 1440-1460 only from such a blow off --or another more than 10% correction.

A 6-8% pull back might happen, but another large correction is very very unlikely though since if you look at how the 12% correction occured, it took about at least a month of increasing volatility ahead of it. So, you need to get a pretty severe volatility started already by the middle of Dec, or in the second half of Nov and this is just nearly impossible, people will be getting ready to go to Thanksgiving then. If it happens, we will be ready.

Your chances for the next correction is much higher around the 40 wk cycle low in about 7 months, or at the middle of April into May.

I was asking about this to Airedale a few days ago, here's the entire message...

Hi ..., the 20 wk FLD is now broken to the upside, but the longer term FLDs are quite a bit below the current levels and obviously they can not trigger any more upside, how do you interpret this configuration for the trend? Should these act like support, especially the 40 wk FLD?

It is nearly impossible for the longer term FLDs to be broken at the next 20 wk cycle low, does this mean there is a lot of air to fall through if the 20 wk FLD gets broken? or it is nearly impossible to get a big decline there since there won't be any longer term FLD to be triggered?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p61303037028&r=2134&.png

Just trying to learn, thank you for your time and sharing your knowledge...

Best,
Gokhan

Gokhan, i highlighted the answer. it's called an fld gap. prices will stop since there is no cascade downward.

due to the very strong trend, other cyclic tools, half span mv avg extrapolations, mid channel pauses, etc, have to be used for upside projections not available from 40 and 80 wk flds.

...

Edited by kisacik, 13 October 2007 - 09:09 AM.