19 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

can i short now, what do you think?

[dcengr]

Polls suggest the highs need to be taken out.. probably up into wednesday.

[A-ha]

Polls suggest the highs need to be taken out.. probably up into wednesday.

Highs on what? SPX?

What is your choice of short?

[dcengr]

Polls suggest the highs need to be taken out.. probably up into wednesday.

Highs on what? SPX?

What is your choice of short?

I think the NDX needs to hit new highs. My choice of short is the NDX due to a fairly large speculative bubble built into it. Sort of reminds me of 2000.

And major tech earnings are due out next week, so it could mark an IT top right afterwards.

Seems many have found shelter from the subprime mess by plowing their money into stocks with P/Es of 100+ now..

[A-ha]

thanks. what do you think about small caps. You think lower rates can help this group during the next plunge. i have a feeling that short covering is almost done in this group.

[dcengr]

thanks.

what do you think about small caps. You think lower rates can help this group during the next plunge.

i have a feeling that short covering is almost done in this group.

You're likely right that RUT is more vulnerable than the NDX. Its showing relative weakness. And its loaded with baby financials.

But tell us what you think You're da masta top/bottom picker

[A-ha]

I have an ever-lasting, gradually-increasing feeling that something big is upon us... the most bearish looking sectors on all time frames are bkx, reits and trannies.

Edited by A-ha, 14 October 2007 - 01:35 PM.

[arbman]

I expect a deeper rotation out of tech, but first a run up in November after a trading range in the second half of October. I think the SPX will start to outperform the NDX, or NDX will market perform only...

I certainly think that any sell off on the tech earnings will be probably bought for another high. If NDX had been underperforming so far, I would've thought that a bigger (IT) top was being made, that's not the case.

We should see the broad large caps rally (industrials and energy or inflation) further before topping out with the large cap tech and consumer discretionary further in divergence (growth). The cons discretionary has been divergent along with banks, but this is probably not enough within the normal sector cycles to suggest a major top yet. Fed can easily inflate more here with the inflation less (?) of a concern...

a chart...

I've basically never seen this market structure really violated, you can have outperforming sectors within different market cycles, but the IT cycle usually completes visibly in the sector cycle before the IT top...

I also do not think there is enough breadth divergence, it appears to suggest an early to mid of an IT bull than a late bull to me. The insiders are at the buy side, the small specs are at the sell side...

- kisa

[A-ha]

dog will eat dog with relish soon... that is the only possibility this bull can refresh for the further upside

[qqqqtrdr]

dog will eat dog with relish soon... that is the only possibility this bull can refresh for the further upside

We have topped are we are very close to topping by my charts. OEX Put/Call has been relatively high over the last couple of weeks, and CBOE and Equity have been relatively low. This signal usually produces a high probability of a intermediate top. I would short now...

Barry