19 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

i expect a surprise start like this

[A-ha]

i think i am gonna short something tomorrow ... just to test if i am wrong

[NAV]

You think lower rates can help this group during the next plunge.

Since you are talking about the next plunge, you are implying that the top having been formed is a foregone conclusion.

[A-ha]

You think lower rates can help this group during the next plunge.

Since you are talking about the next plunge, you are implying that the top having been formed is a foregone conclusion.

I think last thursday was the top

[NAV]

You think lower rates can help this group during the next plunge.

Since you are talking about the next plunge, you are implying that the top having been formed is a foregone conclusion.

I think last thursday was the top

So did you go short today ?

[A-ha]

You think lower rates can help this group during the next plunge.

Since you are talking about the next plunge, you are implying that the top having been formed is a foregone conclusion.

I think last thursday was the top

So did you go short today ?

Yes shorted ES @ 73...

BUT here is the wild card.

SOX/NDX ratio is so oversold that historically almost always produced a sharp scorch...

therefore i have a very tight stop on this one... about where i shorted


PS: they did not remove MXIM from SOX (only SMH) so this oversold condition was not caused by any adjustment.. all natural.

Edited by A-ha, 15 October 2007 - 09:22 AM.

[MacRo]

SOX looks like its straining with all its feeble might not to trace a H&S. But A-ha, what about the USD wild card? Dollar looks to me like it's forming a temporary base...

[A-ha]

SOX looks like its straining with all its feeble might not to trace a H&S.


But A-ha, what about the USD wild card? Dollar looks to me like it's forming a temporary base...

I think Dollar is quite near its long term bottom.

I was expecting 76-77 but perfection never works in this thing...

I expect dollar to rally about %60 in the next 4 years


BTW I like your avatar...

Edited by A-ha, 15 October 2007 - 09:36 AM.

[MacRo]

I think Dollar is quite near its long term bottom.

I was expecting 76-77 but perfection never works in this thing...

I expect dollar to rally about %60 in the next 4 years

For this dramatic an appreciation to happen, I feel like we are going to need to see:

global economic growth slows significantly (maybe MSCI EM crash) --) risk-appetite and risk-asset correlation decrease markedly &/or US rates go up --) specs stop chasing high-beta currencies like AUD, CAD, etc --) USD gets more inflows/repatriation

As long as we are the puny kid on the economic playground, USD wallows.

BTW I like your avatar...

Thanks. Have you seen the film?

Edited by MacRo, 15 October 2007 - 09:49 AM.

[A-ha]

Thanks. Have you seen the film?

No I haven't , looks cute

http://imdb.com/gall...ath_key=0779982