5 replies to this topic

[youmast]

Hi Air,

You and me were precisely right on July top and Aug bottom. However I'm little concern regarding the [insult deleted by Admin]...

Look, I did this study about 1930's cycles on 07/12 (see charts below). The GREEN scenario shows all the same bottoms and tops in between, and it last 56 months total. It doesn't feet in the traditional 4.5yrs time frame.

My questions is....

Do you have any idea regarding market cycles in 1920-30's?

P.S. I would also notice 1982-87 period. The 4.5 yrs should have bottomed in 1986, but we've got it one year later. My other study I did in 2003 was based on post-bubble cycles on Nikkey in 1990's and US markets in 1930's, and it also called the Nasdaq at 3,000 by now and Apr'08 (see lower chart).
Any idea?

Thanks,

[youmast]

ORIGINL CHART POSTED IN 2003....

[Tor]

Looks like maybe its been quite a bit off as regards the nasdaq youmast, no?? Nasdaq going up all the time.

[youmast]

No, it's just fine. Here's my weekly comment regarding Naz-Duk....

[Tor]

Thanks Youmast. Great work as usual and great to read your thoguhts. I was following the nas and post nikkie correlation and concluded in my own mind the correlation had broken down and wasnt really being followed. good trading.

[airedale88]

yuri, i'll try to prep and post some charts later for the 29/30's. IMO the 4.5 yr (48 to 54 month) cycle did bottom in 1986. the 87 low was not a 4.5 yr low in Hurst work, but a non cyclic induced high amplitude increase on a smaller cycle (nominal 18 month).