10 replies to this topic

[denleo]

Expect a bounce tomorrow, but most likely it will be a selling / shorting opportunity. Indicators are getting worse. And my cumulative tick is a day or two away from a sell signal. You know what it means. I will update it later this week. Denleo

[youmast]

Down day tomorrow is a BUY, Denis... Oups... I should've told this in Russian.

Edited by youmast, 15 October 2007 - 04:18 PM.

[denleo]

If it is a down day, I agree, it is a buy. But only short-term. Indicators are not what they were during other advances. Denleo

[hiker]

hi Dennis and Yuri..

my 2 cents -

SPX daily chart below

what is more important?

price action or the other indicators.

PRICE I say. note SPY is trading above 154.90 for most of the after hours trading tonight.

SPX tested the daily mid BB as today's low, from which it recovered.

SPX closed slightly above last week's low, after residing below it for most of the afternoon.

PRICE is king...not the indicators, and not the crystal ball we all think we have.

a bounce off the daily mid BB is likely bullish...price has resided above the mid line for 25 days now, the entire price candle has done so for 25 days!

NO trend reversal has been confirmed by the price action, YET.

ES futures tested the support t/l today....drawn off the Aug 16th low...and it held...low of day was also at the 20day ema on the futures.

bears are eager, but may be incorrect in not covering at today's low.

I went out flat all the ETF's I trade intraday or often on swings. Was daytrading those today.

Edited by hiker, 15 October 2007 - 04:31 PM.

[denleo]

Steve, I agree that there is nothing bearish about the price structure right now. At least not yet. What indicators are saying is simple to me: the PROBABILITY of price action getting more bearish in the near future (2 to 5 days) is higher. Or we can rephrase it: with indicators where they are right now it will be much more difficult to sustain new highs if we see them in the near future. Denleo

[arbman]

I bought today. I will buy tomorrow. It will be probably down, but not much. There was a positive divergence in the breadth, there is not a lot of money to move up, but there are no sellers, or enough sellers to trigger more sellers. The problem is or was there are too much bullish speculation for the amount of money out there to move the stocks up. But we are getting the appropriate attitude adjustment now...



Technically, the clearest signal is on RUT and it is generally bullish; RUT:SPX is putting higher lows despite this decline, what more do you want?!? It will be another inflationary blow off in the worst case in the IT sense. To be clear here, the market might not move straight up from here in October, but it will in Nov. Dec will be the real problem...

Edited by kisacik, 15 October 2007 - 04:54 PM.

[ogm]

I'm watching 33/55 EMA's for support on daily. 1522/1510 area. Saving cash that I raised to pick up some stuff there, if we ever drop that low. 60 min summations have turned down and MCO has the first red day in a while. But bears are piling on in force now. So there will probably be some more weakness, but I doubt it we'll get much weakness here. Momentum has weakened, so if the advance continues, its going to be choppy from here, IMO. The easy money has been made on this rally. half of the DOW and 100 S&P 500 companies report this week, btw.

Edited by ogm, 15 October 2007 - 08:14 PM.

[maineman]

I'd like to change my screen name to "chopped liver"...
Just after lunch EST today I posted that a test of 719 or so was okay, as long as we continue to CLOSE above it

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=77497

But to be fair.... there are some clouds on the horizon..

for one, the daily MACD histogram turned down....
for two, RSI took a big knock on the head today...
and others..

so its easy to see what other "charters" are seeing.. increasing divergence and weakness....
not to mention a VERY odd and overly bullish PCR...

so its a good time for caution if you ask me... As long as we continue to trade and close above the consolidation, the bulls are in control, but if we drop back into the box on increasingly negative breadth, the decline will be nasty. Minimum 30 OEX points, possibly 60.

TImewise, the bulls still have the edge, but even the NYSE summation is starting to wobble a bit..


mm

[arbman]

OEX ab=cd targets 715. SPX ab=cd targets 1535. Probably it will get them by tomorrow's close, it could be a good place to try leveraged long, if the speculation does not soar. Otherwise, the indices will be stuck in this range with a bounce first until they either run out of money and retreat further down or the Fed pumps them up at the end of the month...

[rkd80]

if down day tomorrow buy EOD? or will be a sharp intra-day reversal?