While the S&P 500 Index had just made record high, its daily percent price change had dropped off significantly. This gives the black curve the appearance of a market top.
If the USDJPY failed to advance from here, it could retreat to approx. 116.34. And, if it dropped below this 38.2% retracement, it could spell big trouble.
Whenever the ROC fell below minus 2 (see red circles), the Yen Index always bounced right back (red arrows). The yen's rebound is bearish not only for the yen carry trade but also for the exporting country like Japan.
From the candlestick analysis perspective, the last 2 candlesticks form a Harami bearish reversal pattern.
This may turn out to be a pivotal week for these technical developments to unravel. It does look like the yen carry trade has quite a few roadblocks to clear. And, it may not have what it takes to labor through these barriers.
Yen carry trade pivotal week?
Started by
iloli way
, Oct 16 2007 04:49 AM
3 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 16 October 2007 - 04:49 AM
PRICE IS KING; LINE RULES! - Laws Of Line (LOL) Trading Systems
Swing Those Lines: I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people! -- Issac Newton
Swing Those Lines: I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people! -- Issac Newton
#2
Posted 16 October 2007 - 08:02 AM
I mentioned a double top possibility in EurJpy. Still think this one tracks even better than USDJPY, lets see:
http://futuresource....t...p;b=bar&st=
klh
http://futuresource....t...p;b=bar&st=
klh
best,
klh
klh
#3
Posted 16 October 2007 - 02:13 PM
looks on track to return to 9/17 breakout, so balpark the spx on that date, and maybe figure 2 weeks.
klh
best,
klh
klh
#4
Posted 16 October 2007 - 04:18 PM
goflow: very nice work. the carry matters, a lot.