If the USDJPY failed to advance from here, it could retreat to approx. 116.34. And, if it dropped below this 38.2% retracement, it could spell big trouble.
Whenever the ROC fell below minus 2 (see red circles), the Yen Index always bounced right back (red arrows). The yen's rebound is bearish not only for the yen carry trade but also for the exporting country like Japan.
From the candlestick analysis perspective, the last 2 candlesticks form a Harami bearish reversal pattern.
This may turn out to be a pivotal week for these technical developments to unravel. It does look like the yen carry trade has quite a few roadblocks to clear. And, it may not have what it takes to labor through these barriers.
