7 replies to this topic

[tommyt]

...at least amoung some of the surveys...Inv Intell has 62% bull 19.3% bears...goog and expo only possible barriers from a further decline now...I am still short.

[arbman]

This morning the TRIN was really high on NYSE for a break out, I would not be surprised if the afternoon sells fast...

[ogm]

What bulls ? you gotta be kidding. Look at this board. Nothing but scepticism. Sold 75% of my MSFT Oct 30 calls for a double from yesterday. Keeping the rest. Free money anyway. Gotta love those bear markets.

Edited by ogm, 17 October 2007 - 10:25 AM.

[tommyt]

I'm talking about the highest number of bulls in the 5 year bull mkt amigo in some surveys...I'm not playing for the next 20 minutes...a position trade. No, I'm not kidding.

[ken29]

Anybody knows when was the last time we have such an extreme bullish sentiment on II? Is II still the most reliable sentiment survey out there?

[ogm]

Anybody knows when was the last time we have such an extreme bullish sentiment on II? Is II still the most reliable sentiment survey out there?

II sentiment was even more extreme from End of 2003 to beggining of 2005. For MORE THEN A YEAR !

So don't read too much into 2 weeks worth of reading. This can last... and last.. and last...

10 day equity put/call didn't even hit 0.5 area yet.


And total put/call was at some historical highs just a week ago.

Still plenty of scepticism everywhere. Still all talk revolves around recession, housing, economic weakness, impending death of consumer and so on.

Still plenty of bears willing to proclaim generational top and wave 3 down on just about every 10 point drop on S&P.

This isn't as clear cut as "oh, too many bulls, time to short".

You would've lost your @ss shorting too many bulls in 1999.

[maineman]

Here's what works for me.... For intermediate term trades (more than a few weeks) I use the summation index.. best "sentiment" I know... if stocks are being accumulated, prices go up and vice versa) Shorter term, the PCR is useful, but only at EXTREMES.. (remember, this is what works for me) so an INDEX PCR of 2 or more would get my juices flowing for example... And VERY short term, the best "sentiment" indicator of them all, the one I use for my intraday scalps is the TICK (NYSE)...its the ultimate "contrary" indicator.... For the "public" polls, once a week I glance at the surveys posted in Barrons... helps you get a feel for the ebb and flow, but I can't says its been of much use to me in terms of putting on or taking off a trade. Our fearless leader here, Mark, is the King of sentiment indicators, I believe.... I hope he answers your question. mm

[OEXCHAOS]

Anybody knows when was the last time we have such an extreme bullish sentiment on II? Is II still the most reliable sentiment survey out there?

There have been several. Right at the beginning of this Bull Market the readings were higher and stayed higher.

All II is, is a snap shot of the views of some pro's. That's one segment of the market, and one that's not necessarily a good fade all the time. Still, I think that excessive readigns in this measure are worth looking at, if confirmed. It's just that this survey and the AAII poll both tend to be early. Also returns are not well correlated to the bullish or bearish excess.

In my view II is not the best, but it's one of the oldest. It has utility, but it's not enough by itself, even for measuring the sentiment of the sector.

Mark