Will people stop talking crashes?
#1
Posted 19 October 2007 - 09:51 AM
#2
Posted 19 October 2007 - 10:04 AM
#3
Posted 19 October 2007 - 10:04 AM
People buying deep out of money puts are going to lose it, IMO.
I do see some rotation out of certain sectors into big caps safeties. I think that's mostly out of realization that growth is not going to go gang busters with Fed cutting rates.
But do I think there's a high sigma short duration event? I doubt it.. and if this declines any faster, I'd be buying with both fists.
But if its a steady downtrend and it remains intact, not too fast, then I'll be keeping my short on. I also think many will be waiting for a pop to short into.. I'm thinking there won't be such a pop except maybe small 1-2 day events..
All FWIW and blah blah blah. Just one of many random predictions presented without much of any evidence like 100s of others given each day here.
I agree. While there will, of course, be some major downdrafts, I think the IT is going to be "a death by a 1,000 cuts" scenario...for both bulls and bears.
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw
"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
#4
Posted 19 October 2007 - 10:05 AM
People buying deep out of money puts are going to lose it, IMO.
I do see some rotation out of certain sectors into big caps safeties. I think that's mostly out of realization that growth is not going to go gang busters with Fed cutting rates.
But do I think there's a high sigma short duration event? I doubt it.. and if this declines any faster, I'd be buying with both fists.
But if its a steady downtrend and it remains intact, not too fast, then I'll be keeping my short on. I also think many will be waiting for a pop to short into.. I'm thinking there won't be such a pop except maybe small 1-2 day events..
All FWIW and blah blah blah. Just one of many random predictions presented without much of any evidence like 100s of others given each day here.
I don't think we'll see a crash either, at least not now.
I think there is a good chance we'll see a steady slide.
And, a crash early next year is more of a likely possibility.
An unstopable slide almost always occurs before a crash.
#5
Posted 19 October 2007 - 12:12 PM
#6
Posted 19 October 2007 - 01:03 PM
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics