10 replies to this topic

[nimblebear]

http://quotes.ino.co...NYBOT_DX&v=dmax

IMHO. There's absolutely no technical support between 77 and 72. Maybe some of the financial markets are finally coming to this recognition.

Theres over 76% chance of a fed rate cut this month. If you own dollars you might be asking, how much lower are they going to cut the rates and for how long ? Nobody knows because there is no transparency in hedge funds and $450 trillion in derivatives. What happens if big guys start pulling more money off the table ? What implodes next ? (well likely the little guy gets crushed in the stampede out the door, but thats beside the point.)

The chart above reminds me of the Enron chart. Essentially the same financial shenanigans that were going on there are happening now in the broader world of "high finance."

I think sentiment charts are going to have less meaning for a long while. People could be negative for a long long time.

[ogm]

There is 200% chance the fed will cut this month. What you need to think about will they cut 50 bp or 100 bp. Sentiment doesn't work that way. People can't be negative for a long time. Fear is a point in time. Thats how human emotion works. Thats why down moves are faster.

Edited by ogm, 19 October 2007 - 06:46 PM.

[n83]

There is 200% chance the fed will cut this month. What you need to think about will they cut 50 bp or 100 bp.

Sentiment doesn't work that way. People can't be negative for a long time. Fear is a point in time. Thats how human emotion works. Thats why down moves are faster.

[milbank]

There is 200% chance the fed will cut this month. What you need to think about will they cut 50 bp or 100 bp.

Sentiment doesn't work that way. People can't be negative for a long time. Fear is a point in time. Thats how human emotion works. Thats why down moves are faster.

Sort of like between 1968 and 1982 right?

[ogm]

Don't know anything about 1962. I wasn't even born back then. But I wouldn't be surprzied if the Fed acts very agressively here. They are in no position to dick around. And they know it. Inflation is dead. Dollar treanding down anyway, so they have nothing to lose here.

[milbank]

Don't know anything about 1962. I wasn't even born back then.

Yeah, I kind of figured that.

But I wouldn't be surprzied if the Fed acts very agressively here. They are in no position to dick around. And they know it.

Inflation is dead. Dollar treanding down anyway, so they have nothing to lose here.

With oil kissing $90 per that may change soon.
Computer chips only have so much more they can go down.
Potato chips have plenty of room to rise.

Edited by milbank, 19 October 2007 - 07:23 PM.

[pdx5]

Social security just announced a 2.2% raise. That is such a cruel hoax on the senior citizens since they ignore food and fuel inflation in the CPI. Seniors spend more money on food & fuel than computers & Ipods which are ofcourse are figured in CPI along with clothing. If Fed lowers interest rates much further the US dollar index will dive below 70 in a short time. How will that effect future inflation? DUH!!! Even if Fed reduces rates, it will take several months for any effect to filter through to economy and consumers. The banks & Goldman Sachs will benefit immediately, but not Joe6P. And yes, I lived through 1968-1982 as an adult. This bubble was born out of cheap credit and more cheap credit ain't gonna cure it this time. You don't cure an alocoholic or dope addict by giving him more booze and dope. It will accelerate his death.

Edited by pdx5, 19 October 2007 - 08:59 PM.

[thespookyone]

"There is 200% chance the fed will cut this month. What you need to think about will they cut 50 bp or 100 bp." Funny, it doesn't matter like it did last time, imho. The last cut basically sent the dollar into the dumper, bringing inflation on hard-yes, folks do eat and use oil. It has taken the market basically a month to get over the pump from the last cut, it will be much quicker this time around. The truth about earnings is leaking out, the climate has changed a bit here. I see nothing to be gained by fed agressiveness here, outside of a freefalling dollar-which I doubt they'll risk this round. My take is-no cut.

[Drano]

Inflation is dead? I guess it depends on how you measure it. If you want to measure it in terms of the average price of a house in a year, I'll agree that it will be less. If you want to measure it in terms of food, energy, and health insurance, those items are going to be higher this time next year.

[wyocowboy]

Folks don't buy houses every week - but they do buy food and gasoline. Inflation enables the Government to pay debt with inflated dollars - the hazard is whether or not it gets out of control. Too many variables to predict the outcome........