Here is the only chart you need to watch
#1
Posted 19 October 2007 - 05:54 PM
IMHO. There's absolutely no technical support between 77 and 72. Maybe some of the financial markets are finally coming to this recognition.
Theres over 76% chance of a fed rate cut this month. If you own dollars you might be asking, how much lower are they going to cut the rates and for how long ? Nobody knows because there is no transparency in hedge funds and $450 trillion in derivatives. What happens if big guys start pulling more money off the table ? What implodes next ? (well likely the little guy gets crushed in the stampede out the door, but thats beside the point.)
The chart above reminds me of the Enron chart. Essentially the same financial shenanigans that were going on there are happening now in the broader world of "high finance."
I think sentiment charts are going to have less meaning for a long while. People could be negative for a long long time.
#2
Posted 19 October 2007 - 06:43 PM
Edited by ogm, 19 October 2007 - 06:46 PM.
#3
Posted 19 October 2007 - 06:56 PM
There is 200% chance the fed will cut this month. What you need to think about will they cut 50 bp or 100 bp.
Sentiment doesn't work that way. People can't be negative for a long time. Fear is a point in time. Thats how human emotion works. Thats why down moves are faster.
#4
Posted 19 October 2007 - 07:00 PM
There is 200% chance the fed will cut this month. What you need to think about will they cut 50 bp or 100 bp.
Sentiment doesn't work that way. People can't be negative for a long time. Fear is a point in time. Thats how human emotion works. Thats why down moves are faster.
Sort of like between 1968 and 1982 right?
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw
"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
#5
Posted 19 October 2007 - 07:13 PM
#6
Posted 19 October 2007 - 07:17 PM
Don't know anything about 1962. I wasn't even born back then.
Yeah, I kind of figured that.
But I wouldn't be surprzied if the Fed acts very agressively here. They are in no position to dick around. And they know it.
Inflation is dead. Dollar treanding down anyway, so they have nothing to lose here.
With oil kissing $90 per that may change soon.
Computer chips only have so much more they can go down.
Potato chips have plenty of room to rise.
Edited by milbank, 19 October 2007 - 07:23 PM.
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw
"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
#7
Posted 19 October 2007 - 08:55 PM
Edited by pdx5, 19 October 2007 - 08:59 PM.
#8
Posted 19 October 2007 - 08:57 PM
#9
Posted 19 October 2007 - 08:57 PM
#10
Posted 19 October 2007 - 10:13 PM
- Graffitti