10 replies to this topic

[traderpaul]

I reported that a salesman in a car dealer told me Sept was the worst month ever.....Another dealer send some of the salemen home due to slow sales.....The store was very quite at the local drug store for the last few days.....I am sure the price of gas has something to do with that.....I need someone in the retail level to confirm this.....

[eminimee]

I would agree....I was looking in all the shop windows in the mall late last night....there were many people in the windows but they all seemed lethargic .....in fact no one was even moving at all. Doesn't bode well.

[selecto]

Auto loan delinquencies are increasing.
On the tube yesterday there was commentary that this is causing some havoc in the associated BCD's. (Bundled Crapola Derivatives.)

So much for living in your car after the house is gone.

Edited by selecto, 20 October 2007 - 10:48 AM.

[ed rader]

I reported that a salesman in a car dealer told me Sept was the worst month ever.....Another dealer send some of the salemen home due to slow sales.....The store was very quite at the local drug store for the last few days.....I am sure the price of gas has something to do with that.....I need someone in the retail level to confirm this.....

my buddy manages an auto glass shop and he said receipts were way down last month.

most of my friend's in the building trades are dead in the water....and this is typically the busiest time of year. i'm doing pretty well because more than half of my business is centered on the rental market and rents in the silicon valley have had the highest year over year increase in the state @ 12% (santa cruz #2 @ 9% and SF #3 @ 8%).

there's still plenty of new construction going on .... hi-density condos and townhouses.

gas prices aren't the problem, imo. we are just barely over $3 a gallon so the price of crude really hasn't affected the price at the pump much.

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 20 October 2007 - 11:07 AM.

[pdx5]

Ed Rader, you mean rental of apartments? That makes perfect sense as home owners are foreclosed, they need to rent an apartment or a house. So you will do OK as the housing continues its slide.

[ed rader]

Ed Rader, you mean rental of apartments? That makes perfect sense as
home owners are foreclosed, they need to rent an apartment or a house.

So you will do OK as the housing continues its slide.

pdx5 -- i am a service electrician and my biggest accounts are property management companies. times are good for them....tho not like it was back in the late 90s when there was a less than 1% vacancy rate.

as jobs are lost rentals will also be affected....but i guess people will have to live somewhere so just how much remains to be seen...as house are being lost too.

i know after the nasdaq imploded rents came down 30-40% on average i would guess. but back then there was no place to buy or rent....but many moved away from the area.

another thing, condos can be converted into rentals and they've built many and many are still under construction.

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 20 October 2007 - 03:42 PM.

[AChartist]

Our factory is closing 6 days every month, at two 3 day periods. More than 3 sequential days the workers are on layoff and qualify for compensation, at 3 days, they are just off without pay.

[milbank]

I would agree....I was looking in all the shop windows in the mall late last night....there were many people in the windows but they all seemed lethargic .....in fact no one was even moving at all. Doesn't bode well.

They're called mannequins Tea.

Edited by milbank, 20 October 2007 - 06:30 PM.

[iloli way]

most of my friend's in the building trades are dead in the water....and this is typically the busiest time of year. i'm doing pretty well because more than half of my business is centered on the rental market and rents in the silicon valley have had the highest year over year increase in the state @ 12% (santa cruz #2 @ 9% and SF #3 @ 8%).

there's still plenty of new construction going on .... hi-density condos and townhouses.

hey ED RADER, thanks for the input. I'm in San Jose too, maybe I should rent out my condo now. It's been on the market for sale a month now, no offer yet. I know the next door rented for $1500 two years ago. I have remodeled EVERYthing, eyes can see all new, empty and ready, should be able to fetch better rent? Also this is not one of those 'hi-density condos', has plenty green knolls open space outdoor to roam. Glad you do well. Contractors who worked on my condo told me remodelings still keep them very busy, booked past Nov, but only in great school area, like Cupertino and Fremont Mission..guess the rich are not effected ..

[ed rader]

most of my friend's in the building trades are dead in the water....and this is typically the busiest time of year. i'm doing pretty well because more than half of my business is centered on the rental market and rents in the silicon valley have had the highest year over year increase in the state @ 12% (santa cruz #2 @ 9% and SF #3 @ 8%).

there's still plenty of new construction going on .... hi-density condos and townhouses.

hey ED RADER, thanks for the input. I'm in San Jose too, maybe I should rent out my condo now. It's been on the market for sale a month now, no offer yet. I know the next door rented for $1500 two years ago. I have remodeled EVERYthing, eyes can see all new, empty and ready, should be able to fetch better rent? Also this is not one of those 'hi-density condos', has plenty green knolls open space outdoor to roam. Glad you do well. Contractors who worked on my condo told me remodelings still keep them very busy, booked past Nov, but only in great school area, like Cupertino and Fremont Mission..guess the rich are not effected ..

quality housing is always in demand in this area until business slows down and fear sets in. i remember after the tech bust apartments that were renting for $1800 eventually dropped to $1100 and $1200...and these were nothing special.

home prices are still going up in the affluent areas ... but i think there will be few hiding places when prices start dropping in earnest. and i think they will because of the huge disparity between mortgages and rents, and i don't see rents going much higher because we have a higher vacancy rate than in the late 90s and we are headed to recession (we may already be there, imo).

remodels have slowed down quite a bit but there is still work. one buddy of mine has been a roofer for 30 years and he runs several crews...or he usually does this time of year. he said he's still doing some new roofs but re-roofing has been dead all year.

i dunno man. drive by the home depot on hamilton and take a count of all the border brothers out front. that's usually a pretty good gauge of business in the building trades. also if you go inside home depot during the day it's pretty dead.

i remember back in 1998 and 1999 many home depots were open till midnight and a couple were open 24 hours a day (until complaints made them close earlier).

i had so much work back then that i had to turn 30 to 40 percent away and i was working all the time and always felt like everyone else was making more money than me .

i sure don't miss those days !

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 20 October 2007 - 08:43 PM.