7 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

some of you are well aware of these setups from our confidential communications but for those who are not , I am disclosing what is really taking this thing down

As you all know, we had sectors that were in their private bear markets...

REITs, banks, most of the financials, transports , home builders, you can even include utilities as far as long term trend structures any concern

over the intermediate term time frame, it is crystal clear that these sectors are still leading the broad market on the down side.

following charts were posted on xtrends right before these sectors topped out at the obvious trend line setups in early september.














Now if you go to your daily charts and check what happened after that, you will see that all these sectors topped out long before Nasdaq Composite did. Because Nasdaq has the least exposure to these sectors...

You will see many confirmations from momentum, internals , volatility/implied volatility breakouts and options+sentiment polls.... I will not elaborate them because they are all product of these trend structures.

Now $64B question is whether this pull back is just another swing move or it is that long waited +20% plunge

In my opinion this is the big one that may take SPX as low as 1320 level but I believe ultimate top of this bull market is not in...

I have shorted all these sectors via ETFs and individual stocks at the peaks ... My final shorts were Nasdaq and Russell2K as well as crude oil as stated on Thursday. I am also bearish on Gold but no short position yet.

Aside from the individual sectors that are leading the market down, I think the best opportunities on the downside will immediately come from emerging markets. I have no position on them yet but I am considering shorts on several bloated markets next week.

Edited by A-ha, 20 October 2007 - 11:09 AM.

[IndexTrader]

OK, so you believe this is the "big one", but you also believe the top is not in. Isn't that a contradiction in terms? Are you expecting this to go down now, or back up? Maybe you could clarify. IT

Edited by IndexTrader, 20 October 2007 - 11:16 AM.

[dcengr]

His projections for SPX 1320 is about where I think it'll be based on my Dow projections of < 12,000 from my fractal.. Whether it kills the bull or not remains to be seen.. if its a slow grind getting there, probably. If its a very sharp correction then likely a bounce to new highs? I'm just curious how fast people will turn bearish this time around vs last time.. last time was marked by a very slow turn rate, and in fact the polls were showing a lot of bullish converts near one of the bottoms, which is why it went down further. If we see more of that instead of capitulation (ie increasing bullishness), or I see bullishness drop off slower than the declining rate of price, then further price drops are likely. If it drops much much faster, then da bottom is probably near, much like the feb-march 07 decline.

[A-ha]

OK, so you believe this is the "big one", but you also believe the top is not in. Isn't that a contradiction in terms? Are you expecting this to go down now, or back up? Maybe you could clarify.

IT

I expect an intermediate term sell off about 250 SPX points from top (1576) to bottom (1320)

We may bounce on monday or not, it is not my concern but the top is in on many indices and we are going down over the next few weeks at least

I expect another multimonth rally off the bottom of this move (1320)

1620-1650 may be the final top before the most vicious bear market of all times. The stock market may never come back from this plunge as US leaves its seat to the new superpower of this century

following are the updated charts of the sectors mentioned above as well as a few others

bank index lifetime monthly


bank index 5 year weekly


reit 5 year weekly


trannies 10 year weekly


home builders 5 year weekly


regional banks 5 year weekly


utilities 5 year weekly


utilities lifetime monthly


Nasdaq composite 5 year weekly

Edited by A-ha, 20 October 2007 - 11:40 AM.

[underabigw]

Atilla, Thanks for the update! Some eye opening LT charts to say the least. UBW

[A-ha]

Atilla,

Thanks for the update! Some eye opening LT charts to say the least.

UBW

You welcome

[isaac613]

Hey Atilla, Is there any way I could get back into xtrends. My email address is Isaac613. I used to visit your site all the time. I miss the charts. Thanks. Isaac

[prodigalt-t]

Atilla, Why not open xtrends back up for public READ-ONLY access at least for those charts we all miss? Or setup a READ-ONLY blog within Traders-Talk as some others here have, NAV and Tea for example. If it's READ-ONLY you won't have to spend energy fighting anyone like before. Anyway, thanks for continuing to share your unique perspectives. I find them very educational! Thanks.