13 replies to this topic

[greenie]

If there is one chart to support what I say:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CPCE&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=0&r=1315&.png

[Pabst]

"I'm yet to see a bona fide smash while rates are moving lower"

How long have you been trading?

I started trading in the Bond pit 12/82.

[NAV]

Here are my thoughts. I see everything that the other bears are seeing. The internals are weak, banks and brokers collapsing, AAPL, GOOG and other leaders are extremely overbought, SOX breaking down, but thats what every bear around the world sees. Before going down, the market needs to shake them out. Here is the master plan:

1. Next IT decline in SPX will be on rising dollar. Dollar is ready to put in a bottom. Sentimentwise, everyone in the world now thinks dollar will be trashed.

2. Before dollar puts a high-order bottom, it needs to have a large down day. We have not seen that yet.

3. That decline in dollar will push SPX up to 1620.

With that 1,2,3 punch, every bear will figure out that dollar is going to 0 and SPX to infinity. They will decide to stay out of this madness called shorting, and decide to buy gold, oil, etc. instead.

Which sectors will take SPX to 1620? Banks, brokers, SOX and REITs, the ones which are oversold. Tech will lag in this round.

So hail CFC, our new leader

Greenie,

SPX 1620 ? - It's not going to be that easy to get the bears capitulate. They are the masters at finding tops, double tops, triple tops etc. They will keep shorting. The tops should all be far below to get them scared. Any top above them will make them comfy with the claim "The top is in". We have ways to go. I think most bears will be psychologically, if not financially worn out by the time the bull market concludes.

[vitaminm]

spx near term 1593