It's all in this interview
http://www.financial.../2007/1024.html
Edited by NAV, 30 October 2007 - 10:41 PM.
Posted 30 October 2007 - 10:39 PM
Edited by NAV, 30 October 2007 - 10:41 PM.
Posted 31 October 2007 - 08:19 AM
Posted 31 October 2007 - 08:31 AM
Like many other people Prechtner is very good at rounding up and presenting facts to support where he believes the market will go. Facts? You want facts? Take your pick!
The problem has always been his judgement with what to conclude from all those facts.
Nav, I read the article and in it he says the mortgage market went down with NO change in fundamentals,
like an unfathomable mystery, implying not discernable by anyone. He presents this to support his
life contention that markets do NOT move to news or information, read "fundamentals", but really
that markets move to waves of sentiment, after all he and Frost wrote the seminal book on it.
No analyst that I have read in the past 35 years has been wrong more dramatically or as often than
Prechtner. That's called having very bad judgement. And when he says that the mortgage market collapsed with no change in the fundamentals of that market, well that statement made me want to puke.
It started with an obviouos increase in people paying late on their mortgages, and it was no mystery that
the larger block were the subprime loans. Then the first ARMS upward adjustments, then the easily predictable defaults. To say that these easily discernable fundamental happenings did not cause the
mortgage market collapse in not only incredibly stupid, but it is irresponsible also. He is pathetic.
Posted 31 October 2007 - 08:53 AM
If I knew, I wouldn’t have called half a dozen crashes that didn’t happen !
It's all in this interview
http://www.financial.../2007/1024.html
Posted 31 October 2007 - 10:06 AM
Like many other people Prechtner is very good at rounding up and presenting facts to support where he believes the market will go. Facts? You want facts? Take your pick!
The problem has always been his judgement with what to conclude from all those facts.
Nav, I read the article and in it he says the mortgage market went down with NO change in fundamentals,
like an unfathomable mystery, implying not discernable by anyone. He presents this to support his
life contention that markets do NOT move to news or information, read "fundamentals", but really
that markets move to waves of sentiment, after all he and Frost wrote the seminal book on it.
No analyst that I have read in the past 35 years has been wrong more dramatically or as often than
Prechtner. That's called having very bad judgement. And when he says that the mortgage market collapsed with no change in the fundamentals of that market, well that statement made me want to puke.
It started with an obviouos increase in people paying late on their mortgages, and it was no mystery that
the larger block were the subprime loans. Then the first ARMS upward adjustments, then the easily predictable defaults. To say that these easily discernable fundamental happenings did not cause the
mortgage market collapse in not only incredibly stupid, but it is irresponsible also. He is pathetic.
Norton,
I agree 100% with everything you have said.
I just thought i would post this cuz there are folks on this board who can predict the crash right to the exact day
Posted 31 October 2007 - 10:13 AM