The liquidity is low so the swings are wide, we had a huge volume at the bottom in Aug, low volume rally, high volume on the pull back with less than 50% retracement. If it doesn't breech the 1480 line tomorrow, it never will in 2007 imho. In fact, the C&H projects to 1650 conservatively. What are the chances of getting two large corrections in one year? Actually, we already got 2 and looking for the 3rd one.
It must repeat today's candle pretty much to prove it is impulsive on the downside. The odds to decline in my view for the financials from here with this kind of impulse is pretty low. I am hoping to buy an intraday reversal tomorrow. Any close with a positive A/D tomorrow is probably going to be a strong buy for a few weeks, I expect something like a wide doji... oh yes, pretty dismal if 1480 is taken impulsively... I bet it touches there again tomorrow, no other way to bear up everyone...
IF this and IF that...
Started by
arbman
, Nov 01 2007 08:31 PM
8 replies to this topic
#1
arbman
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#2
hedgehawk
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Posted 01 November 2007 - 08:41 PM
Agree, to much liquidity to keep stocks down..........$41B today is a start and should help to put a floor under it, 200 day ma looks like nice place to enter s&p 5hundo.
http://www.ny.frb.or...mo/dmm/temp.cfm
http://www.ny.frb.or...mo/dmm/temp.cfm
#3
arbman
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Posted 01 November 2007 - 09:07 PM
Yes, too much money sloshing around, but not much new money, that's why the Fed is lowering the rates. At some point, it will all explode with a new inflationary wave to the upside. Unfortunately, my projections are showing the spring for such an insane buying phase. Perhaps the market breaks the supports and dives into an abyss or just sees what's coming ahead...
#4
dcengr
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Posted 01 November 2007 - 09:12 PM
Were you trading since like 4 years ago to think that 10% corrections are BIG?
We haven't had a 20% correction in a looooong time. You know what Paul Tudor Jones says about volatility?
Not saying you're not right or wrong, but funny how people just don't remember the crazy days just 7 years ago...
The days when people's accounts blew up in a few days, both directions. You ain't seen anything yet.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#5
arbman
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Posted 01 November 2007 - 09:32 PM
That's what I said, it is wide ranges because of low liquidity that's being created. But, although the extended periods of increased volatility is a tell for the bear markets or low liquidity, they don't have to be all 20% corrections.
The volume at the 10% correction low were the highest of the past 4 yrs, why would the people immediately bet that the lows will be taken in the first serious test?
I did expect this test from the Aug lows, I did say these lows were going to be tested at the Oct. But this is where the bears and prices should separate the paths, imho...
Of course, this could be the real correction like some are predicting, we will know soon...
#6
hedgehawk
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Posted 01 November 2007 - 11:01 PM
Are we in a trending market, or in a sideways market? I have heard arguments for both. Perhaps selling premium is a prudent strategy during these volatile times while we wait for Mr Market to break out of the present trading range.
#7
arbman
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Posted 02 November 2007 - 01:13 AM
Tomorrow is the payroll, this range will not last long, it is going to blast higher probably. In any case, a gap up is guaranteed. I just checked the ADP report and it is showing a gain over 100k.
#8
dcengr
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Posted 02 November 2007 - 01:18 AM
Tomorrow is the payroll, this range will not last long, it is going to blast higher probably. In any case, a gap up is guaranteed. I just checked the ADP report and it is showing a gain over 100k.
Can't rely on that stuff... they can easily turn it into "fed will not hike with job gain this good".
Still, I would be surprised if some sort of pop wasn't in store. Some alternate count says if we hit bottom of wave 2, then wave 3 will start up with a gap.
The count I favor is that we are in wave C, which is now in wave 3 down (starting with today's gap). So tomorrow will give us a better indication of where its heading. As you've mentioned before, a drop below 1480 will likely convince many that this is wave 3 down. A gap up and run may convince me that its the start of wave 3 up.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#9
arbman
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Posted 02 November 2007 - 11:14 AM
dcengr, there is no such thing called e-wave, but I am not going to argue with you if it is making you any money... 
The biggest and nicest contribution to my carrier has been letting go of these numerology woodoos and working with what's really out there. That's is momentum and cycles, pure at its heart. Momentum for the balance of supply and demand and cycles for any inherent long term occurences, no guarantees, but at least as scientific as you can get...
You are an engineer, aren't you? How can you possibly think that this non-sense is working... I don't mean to insult anyone on the board, but that's the way I see it. I can be bullish all I want, but if somebody comes and gives me another million, I make money...
The biggest and nicest contribution to my carrier has been letting go of these numerology woodoos and working with what's really out there. That's is momentum and cycles, pure at its heart. Momentum for the balance of supply and demand and cycles for any inherent long term occurences, no guarantees, but at least as scientific as you can get...
You are an engineer, aren't you? How can you possibly think that this non-sense is working... I don't mean to insult anyone on the board, but that's the way I see it. I can be bullish all I want, but if somebody comes and gives me another million, I make money...
Edited by kisacik, 02 November 2007 - 11:16 AM.
