2 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

I'm a history buff, and I like to try and fit the market around analogies as much as I can. Some have, in the past, alluded to the market being a state of war, with your generals and soldiers marching about, battling out bulls vs bears. I want to tell the story of Stonewall Jackson. The great civil war general that many may know, whom during the battle of bull run, when the confederates were losing, someone pointed at Jackson and said "Look at General Jackson, standing like a stone wall". That was the rallying cry of the confederates and they won the battle. AAPL is like Stonewall Jackson. While the foot soldiers are getting slaughtered all around, AAPL stands like a stonewall, never giving a flinch. AAPL, along with RIMM and GOOG, have been a triumvriate of strength in the NDX, and has prevented it from correcting (price wise) along with SPX and Dow. Now like any war, sometimes generals die. For Stonewall, one day, during the battle of Chancellorsville, he was riding to his men, and they did not recognize him and shot him. He lived for a bit longer but succumbed to pneumonia. And thus ended a great man and his impressive career. I too expect AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG to crack at some point. Perhaps shot by other stocks as they get decapitated like CROX puts fear of God in the bull's camp. But as of yet, they stand proud and tall, like a stonewall. The bearish hurricane blows right over them, and they'll yet rally the troops to them until that unfortunate moment, when in the dark, they too will succumb to history. I will not know when this will occur, but I do know that it will occur, just as surely as I knew Jackson, being a mortal man, would die some day. And when AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG dies, I may be greatful for profits it may line my pockets, but I will always respect the memories of the parabolic run-up these stocks inspired in the masses.

[dasein]

yes, and another stonewall dug in...

http://www.stonewall-place.com/

yesterday was the second biggest parade of this sort in NY.

[dcengr]

Btw another war analogy I like in markets is the story of Sgt York. Sgt York killed a crapload of germans during WWI during a single battle when his squad was surrounded by superior german forces. He worked his way towards the enemy trench and he noticed about 20 germans shooting at his men below. Now, having been a hunter, he knew that when you hunt a pack of geese, you do not shoot the lead goose. You shoot the ones from the back to the front, so that the ones in the front never know what's happening to the ones in the back until its too late. Sgt York applied his hunting technique to the Germans and shot them one by one, from closest to farthest, until so many had died that the remainder, upon seeing their dead comrades, surrendered promptly. Today I'm seeing the NDX near its highs, much like the NDX near its highs in 2000. While a few stocks keep the index value high, hunters are shooting other stocks from underneath without the index flinching. Its hard for the bulls to tell there's a lot of trouble when the NDX is near its highs. As individual stocks fall, the money is shifted into the stronger stocks thats left. But its the weak hands that are now joining these strong stocks. This may propel the stronger stocks higher, or make them appear that much stronger. But then... the music stops. It may be in the form of some unrelated news or the like, but a sell-off comes, and then liquidity issues are soon revealed, much to the dismay of the weak hands trying to scramble out. When will this happen? Don't know. How many stocks in the NDX have uptrends? Today I saw many NDX stocks gap down and drop 10%+.. to add to many others that have already dropped 10%+. When you're a hunter cruising through the market jungle, watch for uptrending NDX stocks that aren't the leaders but not well known.. those will die first, then at last, the strongest will die when there's no more left.