9 replies to this topic

[arbman]

The guy is attracting a lot of interest, danzman thanks for the link earlier, he is apparently also sending email updates daily...

This will spread around fast...

http://www.collectiv...6084343608&.png

Another one, return 116% with sharpe 3.2 over 988 days

http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl/livechart.mpl?session=11954871385762110479695126084343608&want=rf1c1&system=13202557&session=11954871385762110479695126084343608&.png

Yep, it is all possible...

[Mtrader]

yes, I am not so sure that it is going to be like that the next 6 months.

[arbman]

I doubt too, I actually checked out his other S&P systems (3-4 others), they did not work or he did not follow up on them. There are reviews on the link, just read those. He is charging 250 bucks monthly. The second system is more reliable in that sense, it offers more track record and realistic results. These are the two I saw right there, perhaps there are more sustainable systems in there...

[arbman]

Actually the reviews in the second system are saying the slippage is not letting the system achieve the stated results, there is always some fantasy factor involved... My understanding is the second system actually broke with the elevated volatility, it can be tweaked...

Edited by kisacik, 02 November 2007 - 06:35 PM.

[vitaminm]

Performance Posts and Discussion



http://www.collectiv...83755#FIRSTSTAR

http://www.collectiv...83755#FIRSTSTAR

[danzman]

Word of caution! You really need to ask for backtest information! Some systems work great in bull markets and some really blow. So...this basically means you will have to understand how system trading works. Also, if the track record is less than a year just pass on it. I've been watching the site for a few years and have seen PLENTY blow up. Here's some minimum criteria: 1) Understand the person's style and make sure it's compatible with yours. 2) Minimum of 12 months of trading. Watch for people that change their systems mid-stream...it means they are new to the game. 3) Look for tradable systems (such as those that buy and sell on the open). Some will not work. Collective2 still has some quote issues they need to deal with for autotrading. Sometimes you will get fills that aren't real. I'm not sure what's up with their quote vendor, but this can be solved easily with systems that buy at certain times (like the open). My philosophy with system trading is to use several different systems that are as uncorrelated as possible. Whether this is different markets (stocks, forex, futures), or time-frames (hourly, daily, weekly) is up to you. Basically, the idea is to have at least one system kickin butt to make up for lackluster performance. If you are looking for a great MAR, Sharpe, or Martin ratio (my favorite), the short-term systems are ideal. D

[danzman]

So I just got done with my new system...finally got over 80% winners (83%) on a short-term system. Man, this took a long time to develop, but the rules are very simply. Richard Dennis once said he could post his rules in the Wall Street Jeornal and no one would follow them. I basically look for a new 6 month high in a stock, and a pullback with 2 down days in a row (within a few days of the new high). The profit target is less than the stop. I think that's enough info to get you started. Of course, I filter that with my COT stuff. Pretty simple as all good trading systems are. I must admit, I had to idea the win percentage would be so high. Systematic trading works. Most traders go through the typical news->technical analysis-> Elliott->sentiment phases. This board is stuck at sentiment and non-statistical analysis. Take that extra step...learn how to program...test your ideas...make money. D

[HoseB]

Paper trading on high leverage?

[arbman]

Danzman, thanks for your response. It sounds like you are trading more with the momentum of the supply and demand than the actual analysis of the oscillations... I am decomposing the signals into the market oscillations, if what you are trying to trade is the wiggles and wiggles in many different time frames, why don't you learn how to decompose the prices into its harmonics? There is no better way to explain the wiggles anyway. It is all about whether your signal is pure enough or there is too much fundamental or other technical interference in the signal... My win ratio is not that high, somewhere over 70%. But I get a lot of good money making trades, so I adjust the position size instead of trying for perfection or limiting myself to very specific cases... I think successful trading is a balance of these two, basic accounting and understanding your odds... Your system is able to generalize the market action by decomposing into its components (momentum + oscillations), rather than leaving you with some specific cases and a lot of unknowns... That's my take, good luck... - kisa

[borland]

Automated trading seems to be the next thing for individual investors...

It's possible to make it adaptive to changing market conditions... I'm months into the development of a price momentum (stochastics) model, but its probably different approach than anyone has ever tried....

Ever wonder why that stochastic oscillator diverts from a sinewave? Take a look at this..

Gausian Wave Theory

here's another site

Superposition