I think your posts need a more precise conclusion and a more concise description of the arguments behind the conclusion
With this particular tool, the goal is not to come to conclusions, if by conclusions you mean wave forms, targets, etc. It's designed to be a reactive monitor, not a proactive crystal ball. Rather than trying to determine how oscillators affect price (BTW as I've said before, a moving average is an oscillator), this tool does the exact opposite. I choose or favor a given moving average, state the +, 0, and + slope character as the definition of the trend, and then the tool measures what each time increment of price is doing to that statement of trend. Here's another way to say it: I can try to predict a trend and watch for price to confirm or deny, OR I can know what price is and what will be required of price to change the trend. I'm not skilled enough (or lucky enough) to be successful with the former, so I work with the latter. And so, if that is my "argument", then my "conclusion" is that I can know if a trend is up, flat or down (as interpreted by whatever moving average I choose), and I can know precisely what price is required to do to change that moving average from down to flat to up to flat to down again.
in order words where do you see the market going and what will it take based on your methods to reverse the expected direction of the market
I only know that, for the moment and on this chart, the market trend is downward, per the 20ma interpretation. I also know that, when the time comes, the chart will achieve either 20ma trend flatness or trend reversal when price itself intersects with the MA(1,20) and traverses above, respectively. Until that moment, the 20ma is down, and the trend as represented by the 20ma is therefore down. The posted chart delimits that threshold, along with the range of "re-accumulation" of the distribution day that will precede any test of that threshold. And since it is a live chart, the moments and outcome of those tests will be recorded. So instead of adding to the pile of predictions, this tool will simply be one measurement their progress.
your methods are very different but very interesting, but i find myself getting lost sometimes with regards to the conclusion and what it would take for the market to reverse the trend
If you accept, for the sake of argument, that "the trend" is being defined as the slope of the 20ma, then it will reverse from the current negative slope into a technically positive slope at the exact point that price intersects and transcends the MA(1,20) green squiggly line by even the slightest amount measurable, and at no other time. Period. It can be no other way mathematically. Also, the impact of the 11/2/2007 distribution day will begin to be backtested at the exact point that price intersects the MA(1,20)-34.4points (blue squiggly line). If/when price enters the zone between those two squiggly lines, we can monitor the progress of reaccumulation of those 34.4 distribution points. The "wormholes" I've highlighted are points of interest, because those spots will require the least amount of upward price change (of any days shown on the current chart) to slow, halt, or reverse the current downward trend. In fact, if price happens to cross through the pink dots, a very sudden and sharp reversal would appear in the ma line. The farther below those dots that price begins a thrust through them, the more dramatic ("pointy") the slope reversal will appear. The higher price is above them, the more stealthy and subtle ("rounded") the slope reversals will look. Staying below the dots will give the appearance of the ma attempting to turn upward, only to fail as the MA(1,20) climbs upward again from there.
your posts are greatly appreciated, so hopefully i am not misunderstood
No misunderstanding at all. I'm glad you're interested enough to "know the mo" as I see it.
Thanks again,
UBW
