11 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

this is too many pessimistic bears

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=78605



http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=9&mn=6&dy=0&i=p85731599440&a=121427925&r=272.png

[Trend-Signals]

"C" with Rubin? C 37.73 retraced 68% of rally since Oct2002. The technical reading of C price action is similar as $BKX target and formation. Closed with a big hammer reversal formation.

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=78592

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin could be named interim chairman of Citigroup Inc. as early as Sunday amid reports that the financial giant's current boss is prepared to resign.
Charles Prince, Citigroup's (C:
Citigroup, Inc

C 37.73, -0.78, -2.0%) chairman and chief executive, might resign at an emergency board meeting on Sunday, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the situation. Prince has come under fire after Citigroup sustained billions of dollars in losses from mortgage investments that turned sour. The bank could soon disclose additional losses as well.

The influential Rubin, who strongly supported Prince just a few weeks ago, would temporarily assume the chairman's position while the company's board seeks a permanent replacement for Prince, the New York Times reported Sunday.

The Journal also reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission is reviewing Citi's accounting for a type of funds known as structured investment vehicles (SIVs). The bank may report further losses on Monday, reflecting more declines in the value of some subprime-related securities since the end of the third quarter, the newspaper said, citing unidentified people familiar with the situation.
Citigroup (C:
Citigroup, Inc

C 37.73, -0.78, -2.0%) spokeswoman Christina Pretto wouldn't comment on whether the board would meet Sunday or if Prince plans to end his four-year tenure at the helm.

But Pretto denied irregularities connected with the SIV funds, telling MarketWatch that "Citi is confident that its accounting for SIVs is proper and in thorough accordance with all applicable rules and regulations."
Rubin, Thain among possible replacements

In addition to reports about Rubin taking a role in the executive changes, another candidate is John Thain, chief executive of NYSE Euronext, the world's largest operator of stock exchanges, the Journal reported. Thain, who served as president of Goldman Sachs (GS:

Prince became CEO of Citi in 2003 when the bank was struggling with regulatory problems. As the company's main in-house lawyer, he seemed a suitable choice and helped clear up legal tangles.

His predecessor Sandy Weill had built the company into a huge financial-services supermarket through a series of big deals. The combination of insurance giant Travelers with Citicorp in 1998 crowned the acquisition-fueled drive towards providing all financial services under one roof.

Weill's move subsequently lost currency among some investors, who worried that Citigroup has become too unwieldy to manage effectively.
By 2005, Citigroup agreed to sell its Travelers life and annuity business to MetLife (MET:

JPM 43.15, -1.17, -2.6%) , which had gained more than 35% in the same period.
The subprime mortgage crisis that enveloped global credit markets this summer exacerbated Citi's problems and weakened Prince's position further. The bank has lost roughly a fifth of its market value in the past month. In mid-October, the company reported a 57% drop in third-quarter profit after billions of dollars in write-downs.

Its residential mortgage lending business has been exposed directly to the impact of rising delinquencies and foreclosures among the less creditworthy, subprime borrowers.

The bank has also provided interim financing for leveraged buyouts. When leveraged loan markets dried up this summer, it was left holding so-called hung loans. As of the end of August, Citi was the lead underwriter of leveraged loans supporting five of the six largest pending LBOs, according to Banc of America Securities research.

As the largest sponsor of SIVs, Citigroup also has roughly $80 billion of potential exposure to these funds. SIVs are off-balance sheet vehicles that borrow for short periods of time in the commercial paper market and use that money to invest in higher yielding longer-term assets, such as mortgage-backed securities and other related products -- known collectively as collateralized debt obligations.

SIVs, which had almost $400 billion in assets at the end of June, have been hit hard by the global credit crunch. Some have been forced to sell assets to repay creditors because they've struggled to refinance themselves in the commercial paper market.

The SEC is looking into whether Citigroup accounted for its $80 billion SIV exposure appropriately, according to the Journal report. End of Story
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
Jeffry Bartash is a reporter for MarketWatch in Washington

[Trend-Signals]

YHOO.... in china... nice post by costa.

Was looking for CEO to do something right


http://www.stockchar...40485&r=939.png
http://www.stockchar...19080&r=783.png



http://www.traders-t...showtopic=78617

he long-awaited initial public offering of Chinese web company Alibaba.com raised $1.5 billion from institutional investors, who paid $1.74 apiece for the 858.9 million shares offered for sale in the second-largest Internet IPO since Google (GOOG: 711.25, +8.04, +1.14%). The stock will begin trading Tuesday — on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. That's little consolation to U.S. investors who want a piece of the action, but thanks to a trans-Pacific connection between Hangzhou-based Alibaba and Sunnyvale's very own Yahoo (YHOO: 31.11, +0.89, +2.94%), there's still a way to ride the iron rooster.

Yahoo snaffled up a 39% stake in Alibaba in 2005 for a relatively cheap $1 billion, joining the legion of investors and China watchers who've fallen under the sway of Jack Ma, a former English teacher turned Internet mogul. It also got 7% of the IPO in a $100 million purchase, raising its estimated stake to 40%. Alibaba is now valued at $6 billion, making Yahoo's cut worth $2.4 billion. That's not a bad return over two years.

Yahoo's ties to Alibaba are no secret, and the stock has climbed ahead of the IPO. Adding to the run-up in the shares was Yahoo's better-than-expected third-quarter profit, reported Oct. 16. The stock is up 13% in the two weeks since the numbers were released.

http://www.smartmone...?story=20071102

Edited by Trend-Signals, 04 November 2007 - 05:34 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

COT: big catch?


~~~


Commercial long positions even though those are hedges. Large speculators are still bearish. Breaking out above SPX 1575 this time should be building momentum. The ultimate fight of bull/bear so far under the resistance. On emini spx, only small speculators positioned for longside. Again, only large speculators are consistently on the short side.

My guess is that it is because they are fed with bearish newsletter writers stating the world is coming apart.

Will see how commercials will carry out markets during the best return months, but breaking above this time will likely gain momentum because of seasonality and high short level.

Edited by Trend-Signals, 04 November 2007 - 05:42 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

VIX weekly and monthly

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=M&st=1989-08-13&i=p37916153716&a=121439843&r=64.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&st=1989-01-01&i=p91130704017&a=79446479&r=349.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p48936597383&a=82191742&r=574.png


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&i=p55361846459&a=81415468&r=467.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VXN&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&i=p72794683338&a=90490357&r=975.png



VIX weekly in downtrend

VIX monthly in 1998 range after reaching to 1997 level on 8/16.

[Trend-Signals]

Futures

[dcengr]

I'm just curious why you think there's so many bears and shorts... can you post some charts? I admit the odd-lot short friday was pretty steep, but other than that, things look neutral to slightly bullish sentimentwise to me.

[Trend-Signals]

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=78605

[dcengr]

You're basing it all on futures data?

Its hard to tell wtf those guys are doing... the large traders were very short at july top, and the market just went down...

Take a look at this... doesn't look too bearish to me.

[thespookyone]

dcengr-I see your point. Also, large spec have been timing fairly well since summer. On the other hand, when you look at NQ numbers, small spec looks nothing short of frothy bullish. Whenever I look at the numbers, I focus on small speculators to get my best reading-as cot positions can be hedges-and if the cot positions are not hedges, their timing has been awful.

Edited by thespookyone, 04 November 2007 - 08:30 PM.