10 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

IMO nothing has changed in the cyclic picture of the broad market. i continue to expect new highs before late dec. it appears from examining the last week of trading that the 10 wk cycle low was oct 22 and subsequent action including mondays (11/5) test of the low was the result of fundamental interaction increasing the amplitude of some short length minor cycles to the downside. i had expected a choppy period after the first move up off the 10 wk low, but not with the amplitude swings that occurred. since the 4.5 yr low of august, both 5 wk cycles and the 10/22 bottomed 10 wk cycle show high right translation, indicating the sum of the larger cycle trend remains up. i've marked on the chart below a 47 to 57 day range from the august low which matches well with the historic range for 10 wk cycles of approx 48 to 56 days so any sudden jump in cycle variation (very rare) would still suggest the 10 wk low is in.

[pisces]

Hi Airdale,

appreciate the update as always.Thanks.

pisces.

[Russ]

Airedale, I notice that the Value Line Geometric which I think is supposed to show 'what the average stock is doing' put in a lower low after Oct. 22, this index peaked in 1998 which according to Martin Armstrong is the year when the real economy peaked back then. Value line does look like it is ready to go back up now though based on the oscillators, notice how the weekly slow stochastics is turning up now in the second chart.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XVG&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p19818215283&r=6417.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XVG&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=p09220316756&r=3093.png

Edited by Russ, 06 November 2007 - 06:24 AM.

[airedale88]

russ. the V line geometric has a math based historic downward bias. the arithmetic was created to compensate.

[Russ]

russ. the V line geometric has a math based historic downward bias. the arithmetic was created to compensate.

It put in a lower low too...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VLE&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p56104820563&r=2412.png

[Russ]

The SPX is thought to represent what the the major part of the economy is up to though, you obviously think it works the best with Hurst's stuff, and your record is hard to argue against.

Edited by Russ, 06 November 2007 - 07:05 AM.

[ogm]

Airedale, What do you think of RUT that has never made a higher high, and made lower low And what do you think of breadth thrust ? We had 2 9 to 1 downside days recently.

[airedale88]

russ, geo vs arith was in reference to the "peaked in 98", v line arith continued making higher right translated highs even after 9/11. current lower low is a cycle straddle, fundamentals overriding cyclic motion.

[airedale88]

Airedale,

What do you think of RUT that has never made a higher high, and made lower low

And what do you think of breadth thrust ?

We had 2 9 to 1 downside days recently.

ogm, RUT is also showing high right translated cycles so the same underlying bullish larger cyclic trend is in effect.



i've found downside breadth thrusts are more typical of a bottoming setup rather than a change in the intermediate trend. they are generally related to short term news/fundamentals. it's much easier for news to motivate sellers rather than buyers.

Edited by airedale88, 06 November 2007 - 07:33 AM.

[Russ]

russ, geo vs arith was in reference to the "peaked in 98", v line arith continued making higher right translated highs even after 9/11.
current lower low is a cycle straddle, fundamentals overriding cyclic motion.

Bob, Armstrong's point was that the internals of the market peaked in 1998 which is what his computer model had predicted.