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July Comes At Christmas


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#1 Pabst

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 09:19 AM

Yes this is one big h&s. And yes prices are headed lower. However we may have one last blast to the upside although the high teens in ES could be enough. Just look at June for clues. On a 1519 print my shorts are history. How many worthless dollars does it take to buy a share of GOOG? My best guess is that if we don't break down immediately then we're not going to see the "crash" type action until next month.
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#2 ogm

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 09:27 AM

Yes this is one big h&s. And yes prices are headed lower. However we may have one last blast to the upside although the high teens in ES could be enough. Just look at June for clues. On a 1519 print my shorts are history. How many worthless dollars does it take to buy a share of GOOG?

My best guess is that if we don't break down immediately then we're not going to see the "crash" type action until next month.



Just eyeballing the setup, you're right. The strongest downside move should be next month.

I think we do go down this month too, but we'll bounce hard into the end of the month.

Either way, December /Jan puts should be fine.

I think as long as prices stay in this falling triangle,. shorts are pretty safe, though.

Edited by ogm, 06 November 2007 - 09:29 AM.


#3 Pabst

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Posted 06 November 2007 - 09:54 AM

:)

Yes this is one big h&s. And yes prices are headed lower. However we may have one last blast to the upside although the high teens in ES could be enough. Just look at June for clues. On a 1519 print my shorts are history. How many worthless dollars does it take to buy a share of GOOG?

My best guess is that if we don't break down immediately then we're not going to see the "crash" type action until next month.



Just eyeballing the setup, you're right. The strongest downside move should be next month.

I think we do go down this month too, but we'll bounce hard into the end of the month.

Either way, December /Jan puts should be fine.

I think as long as prices stay in this falling triangle,. shorts are pretty safe, though.



I think we're working backwards from July. I can't wait for April in reverse. :)
Free market's for free men!