29 replies to this topic

[NAV]

I would have shorted the hell outta this market. Been there, done it before and lost money doing it, purely based on intuition and emotion. If i were a discretionary trader, everything i look at like the TRAN, RUT, SOX, Financials, the NYSE A/D line looks bearish and i would have no doubt shorted it. The fundamental backdrop is bearish. The media is bearish. The tape is weak. I read a few newsletters this morning, who all sounded pretty concerned and bearish. Prechter is bearish ( ). Neely is turning bearish, expecting one of the largest decline since 2003. But my darn indicators are saying higher prices ahead. The way i read e-waves says higher prices ahead. What do i do ? I sit tight. TWT.

Edited by NAV, 06 November 2007 - 01:07 PM.

[eminimee]

an hourly sell signal on vxo is threatening....things are coming together here for up.

Edited by Teaparty, 06 November 2007 - 01:06 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Meanwhile we're close to a Nasdaq buy signal based on volume... just need to stay above 2795, possible test now of 2817.XX ahead. Job #1 for your indicators is to keep you out of trouble. Job #2 is to make you money. Some days you just have to be satisfied with staying out of trouble....

Edited by SemiBizz, 06 November 2007 - 01:12 PM.

[ogm]

NAV, what are your indicators ? Oscilators ? btw, there are up days in downtrends They are very good for adding to short positions.

Edited by ogm, 06 November 2007 - 01:14 PM.

[eminimee]

I think Nav has been very clear that when his long was initiated...it was taken on a counter trend basis....it may turn into something else.

[ogm]

After huffing and puffing all morning we have finaly reached the first resistance on 60 min chart at the falling 33 EMA. Many more layers of upside resistance to overcome. We'll see.

Edited by ogm, 06 November 2007 - 01:21 PM.

[NAV]

NAV, what are your indicators ? Oscilators ?

Dynamic momentum methods.

Momentum and oscillators are not one and the same. Oscillator gives the impression that i am trading overbought/oversold crap. I would use the term momentum indicators. Again momentum indicators are like Stethescope. There are just gauges. The intrepretation of those readings is what differentiates the quacks from doctors. That's why i use the term momentum based system or momentum methods.

Just to make it clear, to me momentum is not a MACD crossover or a CCI crossover or EMA crossover. It just beats me how naive many folks are when they say they use the standard crossovers alone to time the market turns. Just use tradestation and run a backtest to see how profitable these standard indicators are. It will scare the living daylights out of you. Sorry for the rant.

btw, there are up days in downtrends

Genius.

Edited by NAV, 06 November 2007 - 01:30 PM.

[atlasshrugged]

my thinking is that the mkt is at the same or similar junction that it was on Aug 13th. I will be throwing out shorts at es 1522- 25..expecting selloff to bottom of channel through November

[eminimee]

Huffing and puffing can be accumulation...and those layers of resistance make good fuel... ..don't get me wrong...I would love to see another low...but if we get on top of the 34ema on ES hourly...it's goin' up ..presently at 1517

[NAV]

After huffing and puffing all morning we have finaly reached the first resistance on 60 min chart at the falling 33 EMA.

Many more layers of upside resistance to overcome. We'll see.

OGM,

I am not trying to teach you anything here. But have you noticed that ES started trending up on 15-min yesterday, which is why i held my longs overnight. Now the 30-min has started trending quietly. 60-min is creeping up into a trend zone. These are based on EMA observations. Talking about momentum, i would suggest you try something simple. Use any indicator like RSI or MACD or PPO or whatever you like. Map the amount of time spent by indicator in a positive zone and negative zone in a given timeframe. That gives you balance of power as far as momentum is concerned and which way the market is likely to move. Try that on 30-min and see what you get. Of course nothing is gauranteed 100% in this business. If a large program hits the floor, it can toast all your readings in a matter of minutes. But even those programs give you advance warnings if you watch the indicators carefully.

Edited by NAV, 06 November 2007 - 01:40 PM.