29 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

bottom of the gap...this area is key imvho...could do anything from here...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=8&i=p65012123784&a=107003689&r=5856.png

[ogm]

After huffing and puffing all morning we have finaly reached the first resistance on 60 min chart at the falling 33 EMA.

Many more layers of upside resistance to overcome. We'll see.

OGM,

I am not trying to teach you anything here. But have you noticed that ES started trending up on 15-min yesterday, which is why i held my longs overnight. Now the 30-min has started trending quietly. 60-min is creeping up into a trend zone. These are based on EMA observations. Talking about momentum, i would suggest you try something simple. Use any indicator like RSI or MACD or PPO or whatever you like. Map the amount of time spent by indicator in a positive zone and negative zone in a given timeframe. That gives you balance of power as far as momentum is concerned and which way the market is likely to move. Try that on 30-min and see what you get. Of course nothing is gauranteed 100% in this business. If a large program hits the floor, it can toast all your readings in a matter of minutes. But even those programs give you advance warnings if you watch the indicators carefully.

Btw, MACD as momentum indicator is excellent. Its not just crossover. The whole idea of MACD indicator is to measure momentum. When faster average rising faster then slow average... that means price has momentum. As simple as that. And the opposite.

I've experimented with many different indicators and stopped on what I have. Works for me.
The idea behind tripple MACD is similar to Elder's tripple screen system. Different timeframes. Just saves the screen space.

Price position relative to moving average overrides MACD. As simple as that.

Works for me. Catches some great momentum moves.

If you play around with those MACD's, you'll notice that prices are extremely unlike to be rising fast when the tripple crossover is in place. At the same time they are very likely to be falling fast.

It doesn't catch tops and bottoms. But it catches the big extended moves. Thats the basic idea.

The longest term MACD 33/250 I use as a main trend indicator. If its rising and prices are at least above 33 EMA.. the main trend is up. Its very good for understanding directional pressure on the trend.

And so on.

Simple, dependable system.

RSI is just a suplimentary indicator to catch overbough/oversold and divergences. To take profits here and there along the main trend.

Edited by ogm, 06 November 2007 - 02:12 PM.

[SemiBizz]

When I add the mixed signals we get to the volume today, it can only bring to mind one conclusion: We are in the middle of a big, fat distributed top...

[ogm]

When I add the mixed signals we get to the volume today, it can only bring to mind one conclusion: We are in the middle of a big, fat distributed top...

NOW you're talking All that bear bait stuff is herecy.

[eminimee]

Nav..sorry for squiggle counting...and probably annoying...just a heads up...

Would need overlap

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=8&i=p91878492396&a=119816771&r=1070.png

[NAV]

I now have a swing bottom confirmed with about 80% odds. Couple of charts. Notice the beauty that was the divergence on 60-min charts, which helped me catch yesterday's bottom. 120-min suggests there's quite a bit to go on the upside.

[SemiBizz]

When I add the mixed signals we get to the volume today, it can only bring to mind one conclusion: We are in the middle of a big, fat distributed top...

NOW you're talking All that bear bait stuff is herecy.

No, not heresy. Just have to learn what to expect when they smack the futures down on vapor volume on Sunday night that Monday is going to be a miraculous recovery... the bait seems to work like a charm... every time.

[ogm]

NAV, you may be right, but.... The position of price relative to moving averages and relative position of moving averages overrides all oscillator readings. As long the price remains under moving averages, they will pressure the price while oscillators reset. So far looks like that oscillator has gone almost to the top, and yet, we're still struggling to break the falling averages. Thats usualy an indication of a strong trend. All you get during rising oscillators is a little bit of flat to slightly upside action. Kinda like what we're getting now.

Edited by ogm, 06 November 2007 - 02:38 PM.

[NAV]

After huffing and puffing all morning we have finaly reached the first resistance on 60 min chart at the falling 33 EMA.

Many more layers of upside resistance to overcome. We'll see.

OGM,

I am not trying to teach you anything here. But have you noticed that ES started trending up on 15-min yesterday, which is why i held my longs overnight. Now the 30-min has started trending quietly. 60-min is creeping up into a trend zone. These are based on EMA observations. Talking about momentum, i would suggest you try something simple. Use any indicator like RSI or MACD or PPO or whatever you like. Map the amount of time spent by indicator in a positive zone and negative zone in a given timeframe. That gives you balance of power as far as momentum is concerned and which way the market is likely to move. Try that on 30-min and see what you get. Of course nothing is gauranteed 100% in this business. If a large program hits the floor, it can toast all your readings in a matter of minutes. But even those programs give you advance warnings if you watch the indicators carefully.

Btw, MACD as momentum indicator is excellent. Its not just crossover. The whole idea of MACD indicator is to measure momentum. When faster average rising faster then slow average... that means price has momentum. As simple as that. And the opposite.

I've experimented with many different indicators and stopped on what I have. Works for me.
The idea behind tripple MACD is similar to Elder's tripple screen system. Different timeframes. Just saves the screen space.

Price position relative to moving average overrides MACD. As simple as that.

Works for me. Catches some great momentum moves.

If you play around with those MACD's, you'll notice that prices are extremely unlike to be rising fast when the tripple crossover is in place. At the same time they are very likely to be falling fast.

It doesn't catch tops and bottoms. But it catches the big extended moves. Thats the basic idea.

The longest term MACD 33/250 I use as a main trend indicator. If its rising and prices are at least above 33 EMA.. the main trend is up. Its very good for understanding directional pressure on the trend.

And so on.

Simple, dependable system.

RSI is just a suplimentary indicator to catch overbough/oversold and divergences. To take profits here and there along the main trend.

Don't get me wrong. Everyone of these indicators work. I said things like simple crossovers dont' work. If you don't believe me, do a rigorous system test.

[NAV]

The position of price relative to moving averages and relative position of moving averages overrides all oscillator readings. As long the price remains under moving averages, they will pressure the price while oscillators reset.

Absolutely agree there. No question.

So far looks like that oscillator has gone almost to the top, and yet, we're still struggling to break the falling averages.

Thats usualy an indication of a strong trend. All you get during rising oscillators is a little bit of flat to slightly upside action.

Kinda like what we're getting now.

This is where most get fooled. If a new trending move begins from a swing bottom, the Osc will not get reset but it will latch on to the top like a leech, pressing the prices higher. And then the Osc starts resetting in the opposite direction. Right now the ES is trading above the 34 EMA. If the Osc now resets and the price stays above the prior swing low, then look out above. I don't need to see the Osc reset here. I have other ways of looking at the same stuff that tells me that we are going to hold the swing lows with about 80% odds. The rest 20% - it's the cost of doing business.