Correction on the last post....Bensimon is looking for a high in 2012 so a low into 2014 is possible in his work but the biggie would be in 2022 which is close to Armstrong's 2020.05 date for a low.
A Benner cycle low 2021 is also in agreement.
There is also a benner cycle high 2018 from 2011 low.
Benner and Armstrong's work tends to agree quite often and have very good track records. So I would lean towards 2011 being the next major low, then 2017-18 for the high followed by 2020-21 for the low.
David Bensimon - PolarPacific.com
Started by
Russ
, Jan 26 2008 06:07 PM
32 replies to this topic
#31
Russ
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- Traders-Talk User
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Posted 27 January 2008 - 10:33 PM
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#32
polarpacific
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Posted 18 February 2008 - 06:58 AM
Greetings
This is David Bensimon.
My thanks to the posters in this thread, especially Russ and Bulworth, for their kind comments on my work.
If I may address the concerns expressed by several others:
First, I do indeed trade/invest as well as analyse/forecast. Here is a brief summary of my background:
David Bensimon graduated with multiple awards and top of his class in a five-year business program in Canada, specialising in finance. He has 20 years of experience with interbank, exchange-floor, and proprietary trading across foreign exchange, interest rate, equity index, and commodity markets. His institutional career at top-tier global investment banks in Europe over the course of a decade included positions as chief dealer, head of trading, and chief of staff, and he also spent a year as a local on the floor of the Singapore futures exchange. For the past decade Mr. Bensimon has been publishing forecasts of global markets, and in 2007 the Special Edition of his book, Polar Perspectives, won the Gold Medal in finance/investment/economics at an international competition in New York. A sought-after speaker at conferences around the world, Mr. Bensimon has also been invited to share his views in the financial media -- including radio and television programs as well as business magazines and newspapers.
Polar Pacific Pty Ltd is a derivatives advisor licensed by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, and was a finalist in the 2007 Premier's NSW Export Awards. Polar Pacific Ltd. is an asset manager regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and recently launched its flagship investment fund, Polarcap Prosperity.
Professional Summary http://www.polarpaci...com/Profile.pdf
Award-winning Book http://www.polarpaci...erspectives.pdf
Media Interviews http://www.polarpaci...mance/Media.htm
Here is the link to a recent 10-min segment on CNBC Asia from 12FEB: http://www.cnbc.com/...video=648408040
Although I have not posted in public online forums for some time, participants from the early days of Beta, Longwaves, and Crystal Ball will recall my real-time forecasts -- including the important turns for SPX at the high in MAR00 and the low in OCT02.
The following list of just one annual highlight from published forecasts doesn't even include that particular publicly-documented call for SPX in MAR00 (which took place prior to starting my own newsletters in SEP00), as catching the EUR trough that year was more significant.
Some other independently documented forecasts include the precise real-time Gold call in MAY06 in an interview for an Australian magazine; and a Singapore newspaper interview in MAR07 which included the successful affirmation of my MAR05 published forecast for Oil to reach 100 in 2007.
2007 SPX In OCT forecast 3-month decline from 1578 to 1268. -20% in exactly this move !
2006 GOLD In MAY forecast collapse from 732 to 550 (futures). -25% in precisely this move !
2005 NDX In APR forecast surge from 1395 to 1775 (futures). +27% in precisely this move !
2004 SPX In JUL forecast low for 13AUG at 1061. +25% from precisely this juncture !
2003 OIL In MAR projected price to double in 18 months. +120% in exactly this timeframe !
2002 SPX In AUG projected major low for 08OCT at 776. Closing low at precisely this juncture !
2001 GOLD In APR called major low at 255. Stayed bullish for 4 years during +90% rally !
2000 EUR In OCT called major low at .8200. Stayed bullish for 3 years during +60% rally !
1999 GOLD In AUG forecast low and sharp rally from 253. +33% surge in just 11 sessions !
1998 JPY In AUG forecast reversal from 147 to 108. +36% for JPY in precisely this move !
Second, the 2007 forecasts which sparked the current discussion were both real and accurate, and in the case of SPX caught all three of the big declines with forecasts of -100, -200 and -300 points.
FEB-MAR: called for decline from a futures high at 1464.00 -- top came in at 1464.50
JUL-AUG: called for decline to a low at 1374 -- bottom came in at 1375
OCT-JAN: called for a peak at 1578 and 20% slide to 1268 -- top printed at 1576 and bottom at 1270
Not only was the remarkably precise recent forecast in print in my published PolarView report of OCT and each month thereafter, but I also delivered that call in several public presentations throughout SEP-NOV:
specialist speaker at a major annual institutional investor forum with 2600 delegates in Hong Kong on 18SEP
guest of honour at a luncheon seminar to 120 high-net-worth clients in Singapore on 15OCT
keynote speaker at a set of three annual commodities conferences in Munich/London/Paris on 01-06NOV
panelist speaker at a professional interbank currency conference in Shanghai on 13NOV
The JAN08 PolarView also highlighted steep slides for other indices, including a 12% slide for COMPX to 2200 (the low printed at 2202) and 14% for FTSE to 5400 (low at 5338).
In fact, when the market achieved the specified price objectives on 23JAN, I received a number of calls and emails, including one from a long-time client at a multi-billion dollar hedge fund in London who wrote "All equity downside targets met the same day ! Congrats !!!!!!!!!!!!!! "
Third, of course not every single anticipated twist and turn is 100% right simultaneously in every dimension -- price levels, price magnitudes, dates, durations, direction, etc. It is rare, actually, where a multi-dimensional forecast is provided, to get every single price and time element achieved together precisely. For example, the magnitude of a projected decline may turn out to be correct, but it starts and finishes with an upshift. This was actually the case with my first published forecast in 1998 when I expected SPX to fall from 1180 to 913 and it fell by precisely the correct large number of points but upshifted 10 points both sides from 1190 to 923.
It is no doubt easier to limit a forecast to simply a direction without price or time objectives, but my specialty is giving explicit forecasts with detailed explanations.
The website has details covering the whole decade from 1998-2007, and does include some calls which turned out wrong -- for example in 2003.
And sometimes even a major confluence of anticipated *potential* support/resistance can be entirely bypassed. This is the case with the example you reference from DEC03. That chart was part of a discussion on the CB forum where I was pointing out a particular symmetry for DOW that would occur at 6116, if reached. [In other instances, the market does deliver a huge move to precisely tag an important juncture, such as with Copper from DEC06 to the FEB07 trough and thereafter. More on this another time.]
At the time of that particular DOW chart in early DEC03, I was favouring a bearish outcome, but what you don't see from that isolated chart is that just a couple weeks later I shifted to a near-term bullish resolution based on certain upside triggerpoints being invoked. Indeed, a public website article on 18DEC highlighted for SPX that "exceeding 1092 now would signal further strength to 1161 on 18JAN". The weekly report on 22DEC also highlighted this upside scenario. The market did reach the specified high on schedule, and then consolidated over the next few months.
During JUL of 2004 I discovered and published the phenomenal relationship expected at 1061 on 13AUG, and on the strength of that powerful anticipated low -- which I declared in true real-time online as the market printed the low at 1060.70 on 13AUG -- I outlined the bullish intermediate case, which turned out quite right. Since then I have also expanded on the longer-term rationale for multiple reasons targeting 3600 in 2012 (which has always been my calculated major price/time objective since 1998).
I hope the foregoing has addressed the concerns of some members here regarding trading as well as forecasting experience, the superb 2007 call, and the context of the 2003 chart.
Please excuse me in advance if I am unable to engage near-term in further discussion here -- I have nearly two dozen presentations in Asia and Europe over the next 6 weeks -- but will try to visit this forum again thereafter.
Regards
David Bensimon
Please note that in accordance with licensing restrictions the foregoing is provided for academic purposes only and must not be construed as investment or trading advice.
This is David Bensimon.
My thanks to the posters in this thread, especially Russ and Bulworth, for their kind comments on my work.
If I may address the concerns expressed by several others:
First, I do indeed trade/invest as well as analyse/forecast. Here is a brief summary of my background:
David Bensimon graduated with multiple awards and top of his class in a five-year business program in Canada, specialising in finance. He has 20 years of experience with interbank, exchange-floor, and proprietary trading across foreign exchange, interest rate, equity index, and commodity markets. His institutional career at top-tier global investment banks in Europe over the course of a decade included positions as chief dealer, head of trading, and chief of staff, and he also spent a year as a local on the floor of the Singapore futures exchange. For the past decade Mr. Bensimon has been publishing forecasts of global markets, and in 2007 the Special Edition of his book, Polar Perspectives, won the Gold Medal in finance/investment/economics at an international competition in New York. A sought-after speaker at conferences around the world, Mr. Bensimon has also been invited to share his views in the financial media -- including radio and television programs as well as business magazines and newspapers.
Polar Pacific Pty Ltd is a derivatives advisor licensed by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, and was a finalist in the 2007 Premier's NSW Export Awards. Polar Pacific Ltd. is an asset manager regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and recently launched its flagship investment fund, Polarcap Prosperity.
Professional Summary http://www.polarpaci...com/Profile.pdf
Award-winning Book http://www.polarpaci...erspectives.pdf
Media Interviews http://www.polarpaci...mance/Media.htm
Here is the link to a recent 10-min segment on CNBC Asia from 12FEB: http://www.cnbc.com/...video=648408040
Although I have not posted in public online forums for some time, participants from the early days of Beta, Longwaves, and Crystal Ball will recall my real-time forecasts -- including the important turns for SPX at the high in MAR00 and the low in OCT02.
The following list of just one annual highlight from published forecasts doesn't even include that particular publicly-documented call for SPX in MAR00 (which took place prior to starting my own newsletters in SEP00), as catching the EUR trough that year was more significant.
Some other independently documented forecasts include the precise real-time Gold call in MAY06 in an interview for an Australian magazine; and a Singapore newspaper interview in MAR07 which included the successful affirmation of my MAR05 published forecast for Oil to reach 100 in 2007.
2007 SPX In OCT forecast 3-month decline from 1578 to 1268. -20% in exactly this move !
2006 GOLD In MAY forecast collapse from 732 to 550 (futures). -25% in precisely this move !
2005 NDX In APR forecast surge from 1395 to 1775 (futures). +27% in precisely this move !
2004 SPX In JUL forecast low for 13AUG at 1061. +25% from precisely this juncture !
2003 OIL In MAR projected price to double in 18 months. +120% in exactly this timeframe !
2002 SPX In AUG projected major low for 08OCT at 776. Closing low at precisely this juncture !
2001 GOLD In APR called major low at 255. Stayed bullish for 4 years during +90% rally !
2000 EUR In OCT called major low at .8200. Stayed bullish for 3 years during +60% rally !
1999 GOLD In AUG forecast low and sharp rally from 253. +33% surge in just 11 sessions !
1998 JPY In AUG forecast reversal from 147 to 108. +36% for JPY in precisely this move !
Second, the 2007 forecasts which sparked the current discussion were both real and accurate, and in the case of SPX caught all three of the big declines with forecasts of -100, -200 and -300 points.
FEB-MAR: called for decline from a futures high at 1464.00 -- top came in at 1464.50
JUL-AUG: called for decline to a low at 1374 -- bottom came in at 1375
OCT-JAN: called for a peak at 1578 and 20% slide to 1268 -- top printed at 1576 and bottom at 1270
Not only was the remarkably precise recent forecast in print in my published PolarView report of OCT and each month thereafter, but I also delivered that call in several public presentations throughout SEP-NOV:
specialist speaker at a major annual institutional investor forum with 2600 delegates in Hong Kong on 18SEP
guest of honour at a luncheon seminar to 120 high-net-worth clients in Singapore on 15OCT
keynote speaker at a set of three annual commodities conferences in Munich/London/Paris on 01-06NOV
panelist speaker at a professional interbank currency conference in Shanghai on 13NOV
The JAN08 PolarView also highlighted steep slides for other indices, including a 12% slide for COMPX to 2200 (the low printed at 2202) and 14% for FTSE to 5400 (low at 5338).
In fact, when the market achieved the specified price objectives on 23JAN, I received a number of calls and emails, including one from a long-time client at a multi-billion dollar hedge fund in London who wrote "All equity downside targets met the same day ! Congrats !!!!!!!!!!!!!! "
Third, of course not every single anticipated twist and turn is 100% right simultaneously in every dimension -- price levels, price magnitudes, dates, durations, direction, etc. It is rare, actually, where a multi-dimensional forecast is provided, to get every single price and time element achieved together precisely. For example, the magnitude of a projected decline may turn out to be correct, but it starts and finishes with an upshift. This was actually the case with my first published forecast in 1998 when I expected SPX to fall from 1180 to 913 and it fell by precisely the correct large number of points but upshifted 10 points both sides from 1190 to 923.
It is no doubt easier to limit a forecast to simply a direction without price or time objectives, but my specialty is giving explicit forecasts with detailed explanations.
The website has details covering the whole decade from 1998-2007, and does include some calls which turned out wrong -- for example in 2003.
And sometimes even a major confluence of anticipated *potential* support/resistance can be entirely bypassed. This is the case with the example you reference from DEC03. That chart was part of a discussion on the CB forum where I was pointing out a particular symmetry for DOW that would occur at 6116, if reached. [In other instances, the market does deliver a huge move to precisely tag an important juncture, such as with Copper from DEC06 to the FEB07 trough and thereafter. More on this another time.]
At the time of that particular DOW chart in early DEC03, I was favouring a bearish outcome, but what you don't see from that isolated chart is that just a couple weeks later I shifted to a near-term bullish resolution based on certain upside triggerpoints being invoked. Indeed, a public website article on 18DEC highlighted for SPX that "exceeding 1092 now would signal further strength to 1161 on 18JAN". The weekly report on 22DEC also highlighted this upside scenario. The market did reach the specified high on schedule, and then consolidated over the next few months.
During JUL of 2004 I discovered and published the phenomenal relationship expected at 1061 on 13AUG, and on the strength of that powerful anticipated low -- which I declared in true real-time online as the market printed the low at 1060.70 on 13AUG -- I outlined the bullish intermediate case, which turned out quite right. Since then I have also expanded on the longer-term rationale for multiple reasons targeting 3600 in 2012 (which has always been my calculated major price/time objective since 1998).
I hope the foregoing has addressed the concerns of some members here regarding trading as well as forecasting experience, the superb 2007 call, and the context of the 2003 chart.
Please excuse me in advance if I am unable to engage near-term in further discussion here -- I have nearly two dozen presentations in Asia and Europe over the next 6 weeks -- but will try to visit this forum again thereafter.
Regards
David Bensimon
Please note that in accordance with licensing restrictions the foregoing is provided for academic purposes only and must not be construed as investment or trading advice.
#33
darnelds
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- Traders-Talk User
- 484 posts
Member
Posted 11 March 2008 - 01:11 AM
Has the 2nd year of a decade ever seen a market top? This could be very interesting.
