25 replies to this topic

[LarryT]

Thanks Larry.

How do you define an UP/Down Cycle?

CP1

The projection model give two projections for each time frame. This may sound complicated but its really very simple if you just give it a little thought. If a market is above the down cycle high then it has to be in an up cycle. If a market is below the up cycle low then it has to be in a down cycle.

The one event that mucks up the projuctions is wehn a market closes at the time cycle, for instance Friday the NDX closed within one point of the low for the day so Mondays up cycle low is the same as the close.

I will use the NDX weekly as the example. Friday closed at 1789 and the weekly cycles are up bias until the 29/30th so if the week does not trade below up cycle projected low at 1741 it should achieve the up cycle projected high at 1912. It really is very simple once you understand just two basic rules.

LT

[cp1]

Larry, Thanks for the excellent explanation!!! Best, CP1

[LarryT]

If my analysis is correct this chart from 1974 to 2007 will drop to the wave “C” target below 500. What I have done here is draw a trend line from the high in the 1970s to the high of 2000. The computer copies the line and I anchored it to the 1982 low. Notice wave “A” and now the decline into wave “C” have touched the trend line? Next note the blue moving average (48 months) held support for every low after 1982 until the 2000 top? Now this is amazing, the moving average is now climbing along the lower channel trend line and so is the modified 50% pitchfork lower line. To see that I would have to move the trend line out of the way, they are underneath the trend line as it was added last.

Next note wave “5” was the extended wave from the 1994 low. Elliott wave rules state an extended wave will be traded higher than wave “5” high during the “B” wave (done that) and drop back to the level the extension started, the 1994 areas.

I did not say the "B" wave wa done, we could still go to the 1620 this year then to 450. I simply took the other side of going to 3000 and "played" the bear. It "could" be done but we don't know that yet.

LT

Thanks Larry.

You say the modified 50% pitchfork is climbing alng the lower channle trend line...but I dont think it does looking at the chart. The angles are diffirent.

Also, I am not clear: ae you saying the wave B we drop down to 1994 areas afte completion, which you say is done, but surely if we go to your 2008 1600 plus target, wave C cannot yet be completed?

Thanks for excellent charts.

Remember it is a semi-Log chart not arithmatic. Here is what I can do to prove it. Once copied by the puter the trend line remains at the same angle so I will move the trend line out of the way, thicken the ma and the pitchfork, change the color of the ma and do a new chart.

Edited by LarryT, 27 January 2008 - 02:55 PM.

[lucky6]

Larry--Great call for the week of 21 Jan--Wish I took the ride--Question--I have read or was told once-that drawing the trend lines through the wicks of the candles gives a disstorted count for the trend or support lines---I really have no clue????It seems the chart you posted has the lines through those intra day spikes--What's your take??What resistance has to be taken out to be more assured of run to 1600??? Thanks for all of your effort!!!!!!!!!!!! Dale/Jill

[LarryT]

Larry--Great call for the week of 21 Jan--Wish I took the ride--Question--I have read or was told once-that drawing the trend lines through the wicks of the candles gives a disstorted count for the trend or support lines---I really have no clue????It seems the chart you posted has the lines through those intra day spikes--What's your take??What resistance has to be taken out to be more assured of run to 1600??? Thanks for all of your effort!!!!!!!!!!!! Dale/Jill

I use both, weekly close only is my one chart I like to see what is happening absent wicks, for example with a 98 point swing in the SnP last week all we got was 5 points weekly close. All but one the charts were monthly charts.

Resistance to take out single most significant is 1522. This week 1370 has to be taken out to get it started then we need a low of a week that is above the high of last week at 1368. Get those the door is open to 1600.

Larry

Edited by LarryT, 27 January 2008 - 08:26 PM.

[lucky6]

Larry--Great call for the week of 21 Jan--Wish I took the ride--Question--I have read or was told once-that drawing the trend lines through the wicks of the candles gives a disstorted count for the trend or support lines---I really have no clue????It seems the chart you posted has the lines through those intra day spikes--What's your take??What resistance has to be taken out to be more assured of run to 1600??? Thanks for all of your effort!!!!!!!!!!!! Dale/Jill

I use both, weekly close only is my one chart I like to see what is happening absent wicks, for example with a 98 point swing in the SnP last week all we got was 5 points weekly close. All but one the charts were monthly charts.

Resistance to take out single most significant is 1522. This week 1370 has to be taken out to get it started then we need a low of a week that is above the high of last week at 1368. Get those the door is open to 1600.

Larry

Larry--Great call for the week of 21 Jan--Wish I took the ride--Question--I have read or was told once-that drawing the trend lines through the wicks of the candles gives a disstorted count for the trend or support lines---I really have no clue????It seems the chart you posted has the lines through those intra day spikes--What's your take??What resistance has to be taken out to be more assured of run to 1600??? Thanks for all of your effort!!!!!!!!!!!! Dale/Jill

I use both, weekly close only is my one chart I like to see what is happening absent wicks, for example with a 98 point swing in the SnP last week all we got was 5 points weekly close. All but one the charts were monthly charts.

Resistance to take out single most significant is 1522. This week 1370 has to be taken out to get it started then we need a low of a week that is above the high of last week at 1368. Get those the door is open to 1600.
Would that be be daily or weekly close??Doesn't it seem like the 1400-1420 area being the 20ema -that is really going to be serious resistance??Good place to sell into??
Larry