25 replies to this topic

[humble1]

great chart, larry. rich: one of the things i have learned after four decades of this is that market has an eerie memory. or maybe there are just a LOT of t/a people out here.

[LarryT]

Larry,

Would you mind sharing your thoughts for the low/high for the rest of 2008? I see the arrow on the Chart goes straight down from here, but you mention possibly going to 1620 this year.

The projected highs and lows for 2008 are displayed on the chart. The max projected low for 2008 at 1309 area was "peeked" below twice last week and an intervention by the "PRESIDENTS FINIANCIAL WORKING GROUP" headed up by Paulson spiked it back up each time it went into the 1270s. They have the same chart dispayed at the top of this thread, they know how important 1270 area is and they defended it. A 3/4 rate cut has not been seen since wave ii in 1984. So, that makes 1270 a major low TA wise. We break below 1270 weekly close kiss it good bye.

OK, so odds are the MATRIX of central banks working with Paulson's group will not allow 1270 to be broken below in an election year so odds are we will trend sideways between 1309 and 2008 first support now resistance zone 1416 to 1436 until March-April. That plays out we then rally toward the most significant resistance for this year, the 1522 area. If it stalls there big problem for the markets, closes a week above it we can go on up to the second 2008 resistance at 1629 full filling my original 1620s target.

IF and a very big IF this problem with the financial markets gets out of control and we fail to get above 1416/1436 zone and then take out 1270 forget about it, going to 1170-1050's, bounce then on down to the 450 level as called for by the Elliott wave theory.

Bottom line, 1309 not closed below weekly basis by end of March 1522 is taken out by June 1629 can be seen this year. Bust below 1270 kiss it good bye.

Best,
Larry

[sjj]

Larry, I don't say this lightly - thank you very much for taking your personal time to explalin your thoughts/idea. Truly appreciated.

[LarryT]

Larry,

I don't say this lightly - thank you very much for taking your personal time to explalin your thoughts/idea. Truly appreciated.

Thanks for the kind words, much appreciated. Since I am in the twilight time of my life I thought I would share some of the T/A I have learned in my life here beacuse I started with this board when it was part of Decision Point when AOL was a DOS program, lot of old friends still hang out here and I wanted to give them that caution. I started with the caution alternate view of a super cycle top at 1552 or 1602 months ago and got beat up for it, still getting beat up by Da Chief. He has already slammed me today on his board and he has banned me from his board years ago so I cannot reply. I thought someone here might get some value from the methods I have put together and it appears I was wrong. Not a single comment from the T/A group here on the 1974-2007 chart so I give up. My 10 year old grandson is a brilliant child, top 10% in the country on all testing at school so I am going to teach him everything I know instead of letting it die with me if I can live another 5 years.

Thanks again for the kind words,

Best wishes from an old Goat.

[cp1]

Larry, Do you have similar projections on NDX? CP1

[Russ]

Larry,

I don't say this lightly - thank you very much for taking your personal time to explalin your thoughts/idea. Truly appreciated.

Thanks for the kind words, much appreciated. Since I am in the twilight time of my life I thought I would share some of the T/A I have learned in my life here beacuse I started with this board when it was part of Decision Point when AOL was a DOS program, lot of old friends still hang out here and I wanted to give them that caution. I started with the caution alternate view of a super cycle top at 1552 or 1602 months ago and got beat up for it, still getting beat up by Da Chief. He has already slammed me today on his board and he has banned me from his board years ago so I cannot reply. I thought someone here might get some value from the methods I have put together and it appears I was wrong. Not a single comment from the T/A group here on the 1974-2007 chart so I give up. My 10 year old grandson is a brilliant child, top 10% in the country on all testing at school so I am going to teach him everything I know instead of letting it die with me if I can live another 5 years.

Thanks again for the kind words,

Best wishes from an old Goat.

Larry, while I hope your bearish projection is wrong, I certainly appreciate you sharing your lifetime work with this forum. I know how much time and effort goes into doing all of this.

Best Wishes for you and your grandson.

Russ

[LarryT]

Larry,

Do you have similar projections on NDX?

CP1

[cp1]

Thanks Larry. How do you define an UP/Down Cycle? CP1

[SemiBizz]

I have a hard time understanding how the market can remember a close made in 1974 and in 1982. I don't see how a line drawn through these two points can mean anything today.

Rich

Markets are driven by computers these days, with much "longer" and more accurate memories than the minority portion of the traders...human participants...

[Tor]

If my analysis is correct this chart from 1974 to 2007 will drop to the wave “C” target below 500. What I have done here is draw a trend line from the high in the 1970s to the high of 2000. The computer copies the line and I anchored it to the 1982 low. Notice wave “A” and now the decline into wave “C” have touched the trend line? Next note the blue moving average (48 months) held support for every low after 1982 until the 2000 top? Now this is amazing, the moving average is now climbing along the lower channel trend line and so is the modified 50% pitchfork lower line. To see that I would have to move the trend line out of the way, they are underneath the trend line as it was added last.

Next note wave “5” was the extended wave from the 1994 low. Elliott wave rules state an extended wave will be traded higher than wave “5” high during the “B” wave (done that) and drop back to the level the extension started, the 1994 areas.

LT

Thanks Larry.

You say the modified 50% pitchfork is climbing alng the lower channle trend line...but I dont think it does looking at the chart. The angles are diffirent.

Also, I am not clear: ae you saying the wave B we drop down to 1994 areas afte completion, which you say is done, but surely if we go to your 2008 1600 plus target, wave C cannot yet be completed?

Thanks for excellent charts.