25 replies to this topic

[LarryT]

If my analysis is correct this chart from 1974 to 2007 will drop to the wave “C” target below 500. What I have done here is draw a trend line from the high in the 1970s to the high of 2000. The computer copies the line and I anchored it to the 1982 low. Notice wave “A” and now the decline into wave “C” have touched the trend line? Next note the blue moving average (48 months) held support for every low after 1982 until the 2000 top? Now this is amazing, the moving average is now climbing along the lower channel trend line and so is the modified 50% pitchfork lower line. To see that I would have to move the trend line out of the way, they are underneath the trend line as it was added last.

Next note wave “5” was the extended wave from the 1994 low. Elliott wave rules state an extended wave will be traded higher than wave “5” high during the “B” wave (done that) and drop back to the level the extension started, the 1994 areas.

LT

[hedgehawk]

Dude, why stop at 450 lets take it to zero I mean is it possible to have a negative value on the index like -150 or something like that? 450 is one heck of a FF

[LarryT]

Dude, why stop at 450 lets take it to zero I mean is it possible to have a negative value on the index like -150 or something like that? 450 is one heck of a FF

funny you should mention thst, the NDZ does project below zero.

[Russ]

Larry, Could you tell the board your track record. Have you been bullish for the past seven years? Back in the 1990's were you bullish up until 2000? It is important to see a record when such bold predictions are put out. David Bensimon has a very strong track record, he is not to be dismissed lightly. He is one of the top analysts and traders alive. I am not saying you are not good, but would like to see some evidence.

[LarryT]

Larry,

Could you tell the board your track record. Have you been bullish for the past seven years? Back in the 1990's were you bullish up until 2000?

It is important to see a record when such bold predictions are put out.

David Bensimon has a very strong track record, he is not to be dismissed lightly. He is one of the top analysts and traders alive.

I am not saying you are not good, but would like to see some evidence.

Yes, good friends with David, we have worked the same tech boards in the 1990s many times during the Bull market run. He has even reserved a book for me.

Sure, from 1986 to 2000 I was a super bull. From 2000 to 2002 low I was super bear. My problem was the 2003 low, missed it completely stayed bearish until May 2003 even though my long term model gave a buy signal in April. Got back on track in August 2004 to the July 2006 low. Was dead wrong from that low until around November. Since Feb 2007 been on track.

Funny story, in January 1995, third weekend I went to Orlando Florida for a traders seminar on the software that made that chart. I was 100% long and super bullish looking for 1620 SnP. The tech advisor for the software was a super bear, shorting the daylights out of SP futures and they were $500 back then. I told the traders there we were going to 1620 and they thought I was nuts. The seminar was a two day weekend. That Tuesday the market bottomed and a rocket ride up started and never looked back.

We failed to make 1620 of course however we caught the Sep 2000 high. This year my top target was 1552 or 1602 as you should well know. We could still hit that 1620 taregt later this year if this 1270 low holds into March, then we drop to 450.

My failures were staying bearish in 2003 and from July 2006 to November 2006, failed completely in those time frames.

Best,
Larry

Edited by LarryT, 26 January 2008 - 08:34 PM.

[Russ]

Well that is a very respectable record. It is impressive that the recent low went to where David said it would and that it stopped on that key trendline. The dow tested the highs of 2000 this week. It's hard to believe that China is going to stop its growth anytime soon. We'll see.

Russ

Larry,

Could you tell the board your track record. Have you been bullish for the past seven years? Back in the 1990's were you bullish up until 2000?

It is important to see a record when such bold predictions are put out.

David Bensimon has a very strong track record, he is not to be dismissed lightly. He is one of the top analysts and traders alive.

I am not saying you are not good, but would like to see some evidence.

Yes, good friends with David, we have worked the same tech boards in the 1990s many times during the Bull market run. He has even reserved a book for me.

Sure, from 1986 to 2000 I was a super bull. From 2000 to 2002 low I was super bear. My problem was the 2003 low, missed it completely stayed bearish until May 2003 even though my long term model gave a buy signal in April. Got back on track in August 2004 to the July 2006 low. Was dead wrong from that low until around November. Since Feb 2007 been on track.

Funny story, in January 1995, third weekend I went to Orlando Florida for a traders seminar on the software that made that chart. I was 100% long and super bullish looking for 1620 SnP. The tech advisor for the software was a super bear, shorting the daylights out of SP futures and they were $500 back then. I told the traders there we were going to 1620 and they thought I was nuts. The seminar was a two day weekend. That Tuesday the market bottomed and a rocket ride up started and never looked back.

We failed to make 1620 of course however we caught the Sep 2000 high. This year my top target was 1552 or 1602 as you should well know. We could still hit that 1620 taregt later this year if this 1270 low holds into March, then we drop to 450.

My failures were staying bearish in 2003 and from July 2006 to November 2006, failed completely in those time frames.

Best,
Larry

[LarryT]

Larry,

Could you tell the board your track record. Have you been bullish for the past seven years? Back in the 1990's were you bullish up until 2000?

It is important to see a record when such bold predictions are put out.

David Bensimon has a very strong track record, he is not to be dismissed lightly. He is one of the top analysts and traders alive.

I am not saying you are not good, but would like to see some evidence.

Almost forgot, I was on this board when AOL was a DOS program in the late 1980s.....

[Regent]

Russ, so what is Bensimon's prediction for the SPX? I am hoping China will correct more so I can get back in. However, exploding earnings should eventually drive this market higher.

[Rich]

I have a hard time understanding how the market can remember a close made in 1974 and in 1982. I don't see how a line drawn through these two points can mean anything today. Rich

Edited by Rich, 26 January 2008 - 11:15 PM.

[sjj]

Larry, Would you mind sharing your thoughts for the low/high for the rest of 2008? I see the arrow on the Chart goes straight down from here, but you mention possibly going to 1620 this year.

Edited by sjj, 27 January 2008 - 04:03 AM.