24 replies to this topic

[emdee]

but until price, and only price says otherwise, I think it is prudent to remain a staunch bull.

Hi Gary,

Thanks for the great post. I shared a number of very positive bullish developments over the past couple months or so but frankly there has been little interest here. It seems like many continue to pay attention to every indicator except price. Meanwhile, the Dow is up 12% off the lows, the Comp 17%, and SnP 13%. The trend has clearly been up, as has my trading account.

The three major indexes are nearing overbought on the dailies as they are closing in on their 200 dmas. A pullback is anticipated and will likely be accompanied once again by cries that the sky is falling. I fully understand that I may also be proven wrong, but at this time I see no compelling evidence for me to change my views. It makes most sense to me to pay closest attention to price and ignore the noise.

Fwiw...Mike

[tuffy88]

I can't speak for Gary, but to me what he said is when the trend is up just stay with it until it changes to being down. And that the change to down will only be when prices fall. Econimic & financial fundamentals do not appear good, and in the end may well prevail. I would not bet on that though. But if that happens the trend of the market will almost certainly have changed to down early in the bear market. Not at the exact top, but within a few percent ( within 5 or 6%, and probably well less than 5%) of the top. If that happens the trend will have turned down long before anyone but perma bears will realize the situation is very bad. In my case the buy signal (IBD signal) came on March 20,2008. That was a price & volume signal. The sell signal when it comes will also be a price & volume signal. And the only certaintly is that it will come without worning. Or more accuratly after warnings that are not followed by sell signals until one of the warnings is followed by a sell signal. Only then will it be time to sell. And I for one will not know in advance when that will be. Charles

[Data]

I don't see that most people are pessimistic about the market because of the rising inflation evident in oil and food. On the contrary, everyone I know has repositioned their investments into those sectors and into emerging markets as well. Given the yields on fixed-income investments and money markets, they're given little alternative to hedging against inflation.

Edited by Data, 18 May 2008 - 08:39 PM.

[NAV]

Until price says otherwise, remaining a staunch bull

Would care to elaborate on "Until price says otherwise". Since you beleive in "Price is king", where would you get stopped out or change your stance to neutral or bearish ?

[Taz]

Obviously price is the most important indicator. If the price is trending higher you should be bullish, if only in the short-term. However on a medium to long-term view, when the rally is associated with sub-par volume, glaring internal divergences, and excessive sentiment (as per VIX or ISEE), one has to suspect the quality of the underlying trend. The rally out of the August low showed many similarities. It was a great rally nonetheless but eventually it not only rolled over it went to new lows. The tone here at TT does not correlate well with consensus sentiment. Extraploting an uptrend running on vapour is fraught with danger. My fav Fosback indicator the high low logic index is signalling a BIG FAT WARNING. Dan

[Data]

Schwab Study Finds Active Traders Are Optimistic About the Market Despite Recent Volatility

Nearly half of the respondents (49 percent) were 55 years or older.

76 percent expect the S&P 500 to rise or trade sideways in the next six months.

Half of the respondents view volatility as an opportunity in the marketplace.

http://www.businessw...o...39&vnsId=41

[SemiBizz]

Yeah, where ARE all the bulls?

Man, this sure doesn't sound like a bull asking the question...

Bulls are supposed to be cocky.

Bulls don't need company, in most situations, it's a single bull in a pasture that runs the herd.

Why are you feeling so lonely and so in need of comradery and reassurance?

If you're a bull, then BE a bull dammit.

If you're REALLY bullish, you don't CARE what anyone thinks...

Or anyone else's reassurance, validation, or confirmation.

[vitaminm]

http://finance.yahoo...jnk,phk,rmh,pht

http://finance.yahoo...yg&t=...0&a=&c=

http://finance.yahoo...PY&t=...0&a=&c=

[vitaminm]

http://messages.fina...ahoo.com/mb/phk

[gannman]

the dow is going to new athighs imho and so is the ftse of that i feel fairly confident after this happens well see just my take g ps the tech stocks look great apple rimm goog earnings are strong and so is the tape on these stocks whats not to like about these stocks , nothiing that i can see