24 replies to this topic

[tradesurfer]

i dont think oil is near topping point yet... we could easily see MONTHLY RSI at 90 on oil price , right now it is at 80.. i think during the 1970's during the whole 10 year period oil barely had a correction... i think the same will happen this time... i think gold stocks and gold price will rocket up soon, as a contrary move to plunging djia

[dharma]

some times, i think no responses is the nature of posting! . it is still very early for the juniors, i dont know what price it will take for the large caps to start a buying spree and that will be the kickoff to the juniors getting some play. we are not there yet, but we are close. the xau/hui are correcting interday. next week, should start a correction. then, up for the balance of june. ones horizons when playing this sector has to be @least a couple of years. i have been holding, not trading since the 05 lows. i expect to be holding a couple more years. the trend is indeed your friend!!! watch crude oil it is the point man. dharma

dharma:

Great article by David Gallan on the JRs:

http://www.safehaven...ticle-10271.htm

stubaby

stubaby, it will start for the juniors when the majors start taking them out. then folks will speculate who is next and how much reserves they have. just my 2c
dharma

[dharma]

tor, go back and study the commodities bull market of 79-80. study each and every market. then call tops. crude is embarking on a parabolic, put french curves to it. look @the divergences. read my post on oil on the gold board -hedgehawks thread. this is my last address to your posts. oil could go like this for a few months. dharma

Edited by dharma, 21 May 2008 - 02:35 PM.

[diogenes227]

Of the 12 gold and silver stocks I follow only 3 finished up on the close (I see a couple more have moved positive in the aftermarket). After four days up the GDX that tried to go up five, there might be too much short-term exuberance on this blast off. Might need to back and fill to get more fuel. Oh, well...

Ooo...that's a ugly candle in the GDX daily.

http://stockcharts.c...6564&r=4530.png

[beta]

Fwiw, SLW shot up to 15.46 this morning on strong volume but came back down. If it could hold above 15.50 for a couple of hours, it should be off to the races.
uh

Of the 12 gold and silver stocks I follow only 3 finished up on the close (I see a couple more have moved positive in the aftermarket). After four days up the GDX that tried to go up five, there might be too much short-term exuberance on this blast off. Might need to back and fill to get more fuel. Oh, well...

Ooo...that's a ugly candle in the GDX daily.

http://stockcharts.c...6564&r=4530.png

Exactly. And XLE pulled an outside reversal day on volume !

The easy money (10%) has already been BOOKED on Friday's breakout. I sold off GLD/SLV near close, and will wait for the next pullback.

Dont be fooled by headlines, folks. Commodities trade in sync w/ the broads, and we have more DOWNSIDE to go. If downside accelerates, expect commodities to lead.

[dharma]

remember this up move is new, and it has raced up from the lows. a reaction here is warranted. i look for this to last a couple of days. reactions in bull markets are buying opportunities. buying strength in this sector will make it tough . although down the road wil be a different story. the divergences in oil got taken out yesterday. this is instructive. dharma

[Jnavin]

I am short GDX and SIL. It looks to me as if this move up from the low is a typical A-B-C countertrend bounce and that new lows await.

[dharma]

I am short GDX and SIL. It looks to me as if this move up from the low is a typical A-B-C countertrend bounce and that new lows await.

could be, i dont think so, but that is what makes a market. below 182.16 and i would have to change my tune.

dharma

Edited by dharma, 22 May 2008 - 03:09 PM.

[dougie]

John:
That would mean you count this as a complete ii up of 3 down or else abc B wave with C down to come (no guarantee of new lows if that is the case)then i take it? in other words 1-2-i-ii
i am told those former counts are highly unreliable

I am short GDX and SIL. It looks to me as if this move up from the low is a typical A-B-C countertrend bounce and that new lows await.

[Jnavin]

A down complete. B back up complete (or mostly complete). C down about to unfold. Gold to just below the 200-dma, 800/780, just to scare the living daylights out of bulls, then...up to 1250.

Edited by Jnavin, 22 May 2008 - 07:22 PM.