5 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Here's my chart of the tickometer.
It seems that excessive closes often indicate very short term reverses.
Comments, observations and improvements are appreciated.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TICK&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p13283298312&a=150570197&r=3761.png
The problem with this chart is the candle scale is on the right side of the chart, and the dot scale is on the left side.
The lower the tick the more the difference in scales.
It's confusing so I changed the settings.
Here's another version which puts the candles with the dots thanks to help from Spielchekr.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TICK&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p30384040371&a=27881618&r=8955.png
Also, here is an attempt to clone Mark Cook's tick indicator using a 5 day SMA. (It's not the same as Mark's but close.)
"Mark developed the Cook Cumulative TickSM indicator and gained acclaim by winning the 1992 U.S. Investment Championship with an astounding 563.8% return."

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TICK&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p42050526422&a=112527926&r=251.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 11 September 2008 - 06:45 PM.

[AChartist]

Trin is there too and the OEX put/call.

I have an improved RSI system incorporating the Money flow index to get
the volume component.
It's a little smoother with less whipsaw around zero. Generally same output
signals and pattern.

Like semi said it going to take huge volume to get through resistance.
I know some people that would die to get even right about there.
Apr 4 surge and mid april gap buyers. ( my family wouldnt buy with
in march but then they piled on in those april surge days )

This indicator remains on sell and not improving toward a buy signal,
because of the volume component. Any way that horizontal volume
will stop it for now.

The bounce may have been good enough to save the next pullback, my
indicators are setup for bullish divergences and the many stocks that
have crapped out in 15-20% overnight gap downs are setup pretty well
in my indicators for the next pullback.

Horizontal volume resistance and potential W1 low right there :

[OEXCHAOS]

Roger, you've got support for a ST decline from sentiment. Mark

[Rogerdodger]

Tonight we saw the second day of a close near the top tick and above the BB's. A quick look-back shows 4 other doubles since Jan 2007. Jan 12 & 16 2007, which was followed by a mere 5 point pullback.....................(AAII was @ 56) Feb 13 & 14 2007, which was followed by a 70 point drop...............................(AAII was @ 61) June 29& July 1 2007, which saw a 10 point gain before dropping a wee bit more.(AAII was @ 53) Jan. 31 & Feb 1 2008, which was followed by a 50 point drop.......................... (AAII was @ 38) The last AAII sentiment reading was 51.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 February 2009 - 10:47 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

Here's an interesting piece from Brett Steenbarger's blog:
(Note that it was written before the uptick rule was eliminated in July 2007.
Since then the number and size of extremely negative closing ticks has increased.)

Closing NYSE TICK: Does It Matter?
Friday, March 17, 2006
I decided to take a look at the closing level of the NYSE TICK and whether it has any relevance for the next day's trading. Friday we closed above +900 on the TICK, suggesting broad buying on the close. Indeed, the final TICK number might be viewed as the leaning of traders' market-on-close positions, as they either lift offers or hit bids in stocks.

My first observation, going back to March, 2003 (N = 767), is that there is a positive bias to the data. The average closing TICK value is 452.

When the TICK closes above 900 (N = 82), the next day in the S&P 500 (SPY) averages a gain of .11% (48 up, 34 down). This is stronger than the average gain for the sample of .06% (429 up, 339 down).

When the TICK closes below -200 (N = 43), the next day in the S&P 500 averages a gain of .26% (28 up, 15 down). It thus appears that selling on the close tends to reverse the following day, while strong buying on the close has a moderate tendency to continue the next day.

Combining the closing TICK with momentum measures, such as the Demand/Supply Index, might screen for particularly positive times to buy the market. Another idea would be to track the TICK readings from the final hour of trade and the impact the next day.

[Rogerdodger]

Here is a chart of the TICKQ 5ma.
Some recommend it over the TICK 5ma.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TICKQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p34180392137&a=150376248&r=4348.png