19 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

after a waterfall we will put a short term bottom tomorrow

posted some thought on the blog

you and the flux certainly have the pulse on this decline...good job!

what price are you thinking for the bounce?


sleep much....

Really dont know where the bottom is but I do know that it will be tomorrow.

It will be a very dangerous market....If one bottom fished today, it is called knife catching....if one bottom fishes tomorrow, it will be called sword catching

lol!

let me rephrase....do you have a certain number that you plan on covering???

i am looking at the monthly on the spx and could see 1038 which is the 200 day on a monthly which is the equivelant of the 2003 bottom...thats about 1000 dow points....now that would be something

what is wild about this...the fact that the big fish have all been eaten and its just us minnows left in the lake...or to put it better..the big dinasours are gone...the meak shall inherit the earth!!! or get crushed

lollll, i have seen small fishes excitement today, you see that rally from 2 to 3?
i think we will see another one early tomorrow.

climax bottom days usually have a larger high to low range than the previous day. considering we had 55 points range on SPX today, it should be at least 55 tomorrow. If we open up 20, we drop to -30 minimum. So it all depends on the opening and intraday stuff.... gonna be like a cone island cyclone....

[atlasshrugged]

after a waterfall we will put a short term bottom tomorrow

posted some thought on the blog

you and the flux certainly have the pulse on this decline...good job!

what price are you thinking for the bounce?


sleep much....

Really dont know where the bottom is but I do know that it will be tomorrow.

It will be a very dangerous market....If one bottom fished today, it is called knife catching....if one bottom fishes tomorrow, it will be called sword catching

lol!

let me rephrase....do you have a certain number that you plan on covering???

i am looking at the monthly on the spx and could see 1038 which is the 200 day on a monthly which is the equivelant of the 2003 bottom...thats about 1000 dow points....now that would be something

what is wild about this...the fact that the big fish have all been eaten and its just us minnows left in the lake...or to put it better..the big dinasours are gone...the meak shall inherit the earth!!! or get crushed

lollll, i have seen small fishes excitement today, you see that rally from 2 to 3?
i think we will see another one early tomorrow.

climax bottom days usually have a larger high to low range than the previous day. considering we had 55 points range on SPX today, it should be at least 55 tomorrow. If we open up 20, we drop to -30 minimum. So it all depends on the opening and intraday stuff.... gonna be like a cone island cyclone....

LOL yes that rally today almost sucked me in....

your philosophy is interesting so if we dont gap up but gap down then we should go atleast 55 points lower from the todays close which is what i would hope for


I have fresh underwear just purchased and ready to go!!!

[steve]

About 150,000 open interest on the SPX 1150 puts and another 400,000 open interest on puts between SPX 1100 and SPX 1140. If market declines tommorrow, these puts could all be squeezed with a possible interim low on Friday at the 8:30 CST opex. This is exactly what happened on opex Friday following 9/11.

[BigBadBear]

Iron, REMEMBER...I think AHA is saying we could open down -20 rally up to +35 fall to -10 finish at +45 [range 65points] OR open up +15 fall to -5 then rally to +25 then close - 40 [range 65points] You may need many pairs of underpants for that scenario I would prefer a gap and go to say -65 then rally all day (+20, -10) rollercoaster all day to close positive

[Rogerdodger]

About 150,000 open interest on the SPX 1150 puts and another 400,000 open interest on puts between SPX 1100 and SPX 1140.

If market declines tommorrow, these puts could all be squeezed with a possible interim low on Friday at the 8:30 CST opex.


This is exactly what happened on opex Friday following 9/11.

Interesting take.
Earlier this week and last I was comparing the chart with 9/11 and wondered what could cause a similar plunge even thru the weekly BB.

[pdx5]

A-ha, A serious question.... Are we close to a long term bottom? Personally I am having hard time visualizing what systemic problems have been addressed to begin a turn around.

[A-ha]

A-ha,

A serious question....

Are we close to a long term bottom?

Personally I am having hard time visualizing what systemic problems have been addressed to
begin a turn around.

I dont think we will put a bottom in the next two years. I don't know where this will stop long term but from the trend structures i follow, some of the most important sectors like utilities are in fact has just broke down LT trends. Such breakdowns usually produce minimum 30% drop.

I am expecting a ST low tomorrow due to exhaustion. This low will likely come from 1100 ish numbers and will take us to 1210-1215

Edited by A-ha, 17 September 2008 - 10:21 PM.

[IndexTrader]

How about that gold? IT

[A-ha]

I turned bullish on gold 2 days early if you remember.... but now I am all focused on the market. I think Gold is going to make new all time highs in 09

[IYB]

Great calls A-Ha. Regards, D