33 replies to this topic

[dharma]

to me, the march top was the end of the impulse. Bwas the july top. and c just finished in the 730 area. in reality what wave it is, to me is not important, but to be w/the trend is. if we enter into the parabolic, that is good enough for me to start to lighten up. we are a long ways from that. time has become compressed. this latest crises occurred much faster than i thought it would. the correction was about 6 months. now we will see compression to the upside. cgnx- we are on the exact same page, i can be very patient. dharma

[hiker]

trivia, yes...but in case you are interested.

the 17 vs. 43-week ema's have yet to make a bearish cross, though it was close on the large and sudden selloff ...see the MACD that measures the distance between the two MA's -

http://stockcharts.c...id=p79088965189

[hiker]

this MA configuration on the GLD daily could be a caution for gold bulls not to be overconfident just YET -

http://stockcharts.c...id=p72581113802

you can see what it has meant for the SPX, since the bearish cross of the 50day ema vs the 233day sma -

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p48630273857

[Tor]

Yes I agree, he has correctly identified 5 Waves up, only trouble is they are Primary Waves.......the Bull Market in Gold and Commodities is over, welcome to Global Recession and Global Deflation.

World Economy now needs to "de-lever" excesses of the last 10 years......the $usd will rise as the US is ahead of the curve on the process.

Incorrect, we will have increasing stagflation as the Fed (and rest of the world) prints currency like crazy and some sectors delever like crazy, that is a wonderful environment for a CYCLE WAVE THREE advance in gold. XAU has the same 5-wave move and has already corrected about 60% - the correction is over and its grande norte time. It is so obvious most just can't see it in Senor's opinion.

BSing away

Senor

Senor, I believe I see what you are looking at but am still yet to be convinced as to the timing. Please let me explain.

Gold stocks xau and hui have gone through a wave 2, right bisased decline. wave 1 up started in august 2007 and up into march 2008:

http://stockcharts.c.../h-sc/ui?s=$xau

my problem is that THIS WAVE 2 DECLINE haS OVERLAPPED with the wave 1 lows in august 2007.

Is this the right count and is there a problemo witrh the overlappo?

Good trading.

You still do NOT understand! A HUGE 5 wave rally (from 2000 low) completed in MARCH of THIS year - Senor is screaming this! The rally from August to March was a CINCO wave and NOT a wave ONE - this is why you are having such a problemo amigo. Because of this there is NO worry or problemo about wave 2 going below wave 1 - do you get this? It is simple.

BSing away

Senor

Oki I see it, on the metal, but I was referring to the HUI and XAU, which topped in march also. I guess I find it tricky to count the move from oct 06 to march 08 as a wave 5, as it was so long. apologies for my niaive comments but I was trying to follow some elliott rules on each wave and its character in time and price, and never looked at that as a 5, rather a 1 in a bigger 3.

Good trading to you regardless I hope it works and thanks very much for your time consuming views, which have helped me so much so many times I am very grateful for.

[Islander]

Yes I agree, he has correctly identified 5 Waves up, only trouble is they are Primary Waves.......the Bull Market in Gold and Commodities is over, welcome to Global Recession and Global Deflation.

World Economy now needs to "de-lever" excesses of the last 10 years......the $usd will rise as the US is ahead of the curve on the process.

You make an interesting case. Besides the golds must over come resist at about the current level. So, we wait to add. Of course I am all in anyway, and I think the damage to the dollar, relatively speak (as you were) will be significant. Then there is the further stimulus package. Oh. Yes, bailing out the banks is only half of the cookie now we need to get the demand side moving. Gold rises my friend.

[dharma]

this MA configuration on the GLD daily could be a caution for gold bulls not to be overconfident just YET -

http://stockcharts.c...id=p72581113802

you can see what it has meant for the SPX, since the bearish cross of the 50day ema vs the 233day sma -

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p48630273857

overconfidence comes in the parabolic, its why so few sell into it, thus the parabolic. greed is @its height. gold is another vehicle. and it too will need to abandoned, though few will ride the parabolic and a few will sell. things will look so bad it will be difficult to find a comfortable spot to your funds.
how long will it take foreign investors to realize that the dollar will be worthless? the usa has built up a great history. and it has been sound money policies that have kept the dollar as a top notch investment vehicle. folks are going to find a new religion! the passage of the bailout, in its present form insures the dollars demise. history is replete w/fiats that fallen by the wayside, in fact no fiat has ever survived the dollar holds the record @this time for its lengthy success story. i can be very patient. uncommon profits are found in vehicles that are about tobe the center of the financial universe. its healthy that there are bears and skeptics. it is the phase of market we are in. the correction was powerful and left a lasting impression. time is becoming more compressed. hold your breath: fre, fnm, aig, leh, mer,wm, the autos came knocking for 35 billion, yep its a party. and i can wait. its obvious to me. cmgi, jdsu, etc were worth billions of dollars. how hard is this to see.
the fed was put into existence to prevent large swings in markets. their track record is stellar. now they put themselves and the dollar out of biz. dharma

[cgnx]

Even if you are right Gold will be the only game in town. The gold market is so small it can be cornered. If it can be cornered it will be cornered. I just hope it gets cornered by "The Good Guys". Whoever controls Gold, controls the World. How much Gold can a trillion dollars buy?

Yes I agree, he has correctly identified 5 Waves up, only trouble is they are Primary Waves.......the Bull Market in Gold and Commodities is over, welcome to Global Recession and Global Deflation.

World Economy now needs to "de-lever" excesses of the last 10 years......the $usd will rise as the US is ahead of the curve on the process.

[cgnx]

Just did the math. You can buy 1 billion ounces of gold at $1000 a pop. For a cool Trillion. I've heard of a few Soveriegn Funds with that much money. Also, How many ounces float is their? My total outstanding estimate is 10 billion ounces, give or take. So we have a fantastic potential squeeze. And why wouldn't they? How could you pass up this opportunity. The crisis isn't even necessary. That is just icing added to this metallic cake. Bon Appetit

[Tor]

Just did the math. You can buy 1 billion ounces of gold at $1000 a pop. For a cool Trillion. I've heard of a few Soveriegn Funds with that much money. Also, How many ounces float is their? My total outstanding estimate is 10 billion ounces, give or take. So we have a fantastic potential squeeze. And why wouldn't they? How could you pass up this opportunity. The crisis isn't even necessary. That is just icing added to this metallic cake. Bon Appetit

The problem is tht global capitalism needs inflation to keep the game working........price appreciation to continue the illusion of progress, hence control the masses.

That is why I feel that the gold standard straight jacket was eventually abolished in the first place, and why it should remain relgated IMO.

[cgnx]

The str8 jacket on the gold price is about to get loosed. And its about time. Cant keep a good rock down forever. Time for gold to play some serious ketchup.