33 replies to this topic

[gvc]

I am assuming that most on this board agree with Tim Ords wave count?

http://www.traders-t...?...ost&id=8347

he indicates that we are entering now a Primary Wave 3 up.

If true it implies that this should be the most powerful and persistent wave up of the entire bull market (according to elliottwave theory).

Si ?

this would coincide with a 5th wave underlying commodity scenario as 5th waves in commodities are many times the "mania" stage that coincides with 3rd "recognition" waves in the stocks. the 5th wave up in the stox can be either a smallish ending wave that coincides with a commodity's two wave that retraces almost all the first wave down after the 5th wave top (forming a double top) or it can coincide with the commodity's "extended" 5th wave. In the gold market , gold is likely to extend within its 5th wave causing the xau's 5th wave to be of the larger variety (possibly well into the 400 area). Its likely that the speed of the upmove will be so fast (relatively speaking) that the underlying wave counts will probably be hard to label precisely.

[senorBS]

Yes I agree, he has correctly identified 5 Waves up, only trouble is they are Primary Waves.......the Bull Market in Gold and Commodities is over, welcome to Global Recession and Global Deflation.

World Economy now needs to "de-lever" excesses of the last 10 years......the $usd will rise as the US is ahead of the curve on the process.

Incorrect, we will have increasing stagflation as the Fed (and rest of the world) prints currency like crazy and some sectors delever like crazy, that is a wonderful environment for a CYCLE WAVE THREE advance in gold. XAU has the same 5-wave move and has already corrected about 60% - the correction is over and its grande norte time. It is so obvious most just can't see it in Senor's opinion.

BSing away

Senor

[Tor]

Yes I agree, he has correctly identified 5 Waves up, only trouble is they are Primary Waves.......the Bull Market in Gold and Commodities is over, welcome to Global Recession and Global Deflation.

World Economy now needs to "de-lever" excesses of the last 10 years......the $usd will rise as the US is ahead of the curve on the process.

Incorrect, we will have increasing stagflation as the Fed (and rest of the world) prints currency like crazy and some sectors delever like crazy, that is a wonderful environment for a CYCLE WAVE THREE advance in gold. XAU has the same 5-wave move and has already corrected about 60% - the correction is over and its grande norte time. It is so obvious most just can't see it in Senor's opinion.

BSing away

Senor

Senor, I believe I see what you are looking at but am still yet to be convinced as to the timing. Please let me explain.

Gold stocks xau and hui have gone through a wave 2, right bisased decline. wave 1 up started in august 2007 and up into march 2008:

http://stockcharts.c.../h-sc/ui?s=$xau

my problem is that THIS WAVE 2 DECLINE haS OVERLAPPED with the wave 1 lows in august 2007.

Is this the right count and is there a problemo witrh the overlappo?

Good trading.

[senorBS]

Yes I agree, he has correctly identified 5 Waves up, only trouble is they are Primary Waves.......the Bull Market in Gold and Commodities is over, welcome to Global Recession and Global Deflation.

World Economy now needs to "de-lever" excesses of the last 10 years......the $usd will rise as the US is ahead of the curve on the process.

Incorrect, we will have increasing stagflation as the Fed (and rest of the world) prints currency like crazy and some sectors delever like crazy, that is a wonderful environment for a CYCLE WAVE THREE advance in gold. XAU has the same 5-wave move and has already corrected about 60% - the correction is over and its grande norte time. It is so obvious most just can't see it in Senor's opinion.

BSing away

Senor

Senor, I believe I see what you are looking at but am still yet to be convinced as to the timing. Please let me explain.

Gold stocks xau and hui have gone through a wave 2, right bisased decline. wave 1 up started in august 2007 and up into march 2008:

http://stockcharts.c.../h-sc/ui?s=$xau

my problem is that THIS WAVE 2 DECLINE haS OVERLAPPED with the wave 1 lows in august 2007.

Is this the right count and is there a problemo witrh the overlappo?

Good trading.

I think there is a misunderstanding, Senor's count is that cinco up from the 2000 low at 41.61 completed in March at 209.27. The grande DOS wave bottomed a few weeks ago at 110.60, correcting almost 60% of the cinco wave norte rally. At that low the XAU/GOLD ratio hit it's lowest level ever, in Senor's opinion cementing it as a wave Dos low. The XAU's rally from 110.70 to last week's high at 153.85 is also a cinco wave rally, this is about as bullish as it gets amigo. There is never a sure thing, in Senor's opinion this is a good as it gets.

NO BS

Senor

[fib_1618]

he indicates that we are entering now a Primary Wave 3 up.

That's going to be hard to do with the current precious metals equity stock internals (but this could be because of overall weakness).

Longer term gold count, updated through last weekend, is shown below based on these same internals.

I'm also throwing in the longer term A/D line of the XAU as of last Friday for further discussion.

Thanks for the thread.

Fib

[nimblebear]

I'm happy to chime in: quite simply I'm with senor on this one.

[Tor]

my count is 5 up into may 2006. then consolidation until august 2007, call it a runing correction, then a wave 1 up, and now the decline wave 2, as part of a big wave 3 UP. my problem is in the gold stocks when we have some overlap intra week below wave 1 lows. thanks for all to everyone.

[senorBS]

Yes I agree, he has correctly identified 5 Waves up, only trouble is they are Primary Waves.......the Bull Market in Gold and Commodities is over, welcome to Global Recession and Global Deflation.

World Economy now needs to "de-lever" excesses of the last 10 years......the $usd will rise as the US is ahead of the curve on the process.

Incorrect, we will have increasing stagflation as the Fed (and rest of the world) prints currency like crazy and some sectors delever like crazy, that is a wonderful environment for a CYCLE WAVE THREE advance in gold. XAU has the same 5-wave move and has already corrected about 60% - the correction is over and its grande norte time. It is so obvious most just can't see it in Senor's opinion.

BSing away

Senor

Senor, I believe I see what you are looking at but am still yet to be convinced as to the timing. Please let me explain.

Gold stocks xau and hui have gone through a wave 2, right bisased decline. wave 1 up started in august 2007 and up into march 2008:

http://stockcharts.c.../h-sc/ui?s=$xau

my problem is that THIS WAVE 2 DECLINE haS OVERLAPPED with the wave 1 lows in august 2007.

Is this the right count and is there a problemo witrh the overlappo?

Good trading.

You still do NOT understand! A HUGE 5 wave rally (from 2000 low) completed in MARCH of THIS year - Senor is screaming this! The rally from August to March was a CINCO wave and NOT a wave ONE - this is why you are having such a problemo amigo. Because of this there is NO worry or problemo about wave 2 going below wave 1 - do you get this? It is simple.

BSing away

Senor

[senorBS]

Senor Fib, are you not considering that gold's decline to 739 completed the entire correction? I understand it might only be the first part, but it is a clearly corrective pattern. The reason that Senor thinks it might be done is that the XAU corrected almost 60% of its cinco wave rally from 2000 and silver's muy grande correction as well. Normally Senor would think more time may be needed, but in this once in several decades loco crisis environment Senor thinks amigos should expect the unexpected. BSing away Senor

[dharma]

I am assuming that most on this board agree with Tim Ords wave count?

http://www.traders-t...?...ost&id=8347

he indicates that we are entering now a Primary Wave 3 up.

If true it implies that this should be the most powerful and persistent wave up of the entire bull market (according to elliottwave theory).

Si ?

Or Tim Ord agrees with Senor's count? Either way this amigo and I see eye to eye.

NO BS

Senor

fwiw- me too! and i think there is a really good chance 2 ended on friday! dharma