128 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

How simple is this?

For traders:

If the McClellan Oscillator has lows above lows and the Summation Index is rising, be long.
If the McClellan Oscillator has highs below highs and the Summation Index is falling, be short or flat.

For investors:

If the Summation Index has lows above lows and the price and 50-day moving average are above the 200-day moving average, be long.
If the Summation Index has highs below highs and the price and 50-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average be short or flat.

As for the the beginnings of Bull and Bear Markets see the chart.

Good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&i=p08842762876&a=154490513&r=6125.png

[diogenes227]

Trading -- the rally should resume.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p96395802075&a=122655226&r=7673.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p71925132521&a=124727216&r=701.png

[diogenes227]

Trading sell. Very bearish for now.

[diogenes227]

Trading buy yesterday (11/25).

[diogenes227]

Posted this chart on a thread on FF today, suggesting this repeated strength into the close for the last few days is typical of the price action with a rising summation index. It may not continue in this volatile bear market but if it does this trading rally might get some real traction.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p95424561741&a=156034058&r=1898.png

[diogenes227]

Just dropping by on Sunday to say, if we take out that SPX high at 896, it will be rocket time for the bulls. Looks like this week it could happen with that new high-level low above a low on the McClellan Oscillator and the continued rise on the Summations Index. Good trading to everyone especially to everyone who's long.

[diogenes227]

I guess the Fed is going to have to save the rally because it's begun to look pretty puny. The Summation has been rising now for more than three weeks of trading days and the indexes have not made much progress (there are stocks that have leaped out of deeply oversold, but...). Oftentimes, the real rally comes at the end of the run and the summation frequently likes to rise 20-25 trading days so there is still room to move. But the fact we're rallying in a bear market and the strength into the close each day on the SPX (see the 30 min chart above) has now begun to wane is one hell of a warning. Good trading and TIGHT STOPS to everyone who's long.

[diogenes227]

Amazing how often the market loves a Fed decision when the Summation is rising. Now if the SPX can blow out 919, this rally could follow through to Santa time and maybe even to the singing of Auld Lang Syne. Good trading to everyone. Tight stops.

[diogenes227]

Now that the holidays are ending and the Summation has gotten a bit exuberant thought I'd post on update on the McClellan Summation buy on November 25th.

It's been hard slogging and mostly a frustrating sideways move, but since the buy signal:

TNA (the 3 beta ETF on the Russell) has gained 28.2 percent on today's close.

QLD (the 2 beta ETF on the Nasdaq 100 QQQQs) has gained 18.2 percent on today's close.

SSO (the 2 beta ETF on the S&P has gained 14.6 percent on today's close.

Nice bear-market Santa rally. It could keep going but given that the Summation is up 27 days, it's probably time for a tumble.

Happy holidays and here's hoping everyone has a profitable new year.

http://stockcharts.c...6494&r=3202.png

http://stockcharts.c...97275&r=175.png

http://stockcharts.c...9172&r=8141.png

[TrillionDollarMan]

good post! TDM