128 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

The NYSI and NASI gave buy signals today, March 12.

But is must be noted this is still a bear market and the sharpness of the rally in the last few days has the market overbought. It might be more prudent to wait to buy dips as long as the summation is rising. Regardless, until it again declines, the benefit of the doubt is to the upside.

On the Feb 10 sell signal:

The SDS trade closed out up 14.9 percent, TWM up 22.2 percent, QID up 6.6 percent (hmm...the NAZ has been stronger throughout this decline). I have updated the charts above for FAZ and TZA, the 3 times leveraged short ETFs to illustrate the Wall Street truism that pigs on a spit get barbequed on the turn...

Both FAZ and TZA, as posted above, had doubled on this run as of four days ago. TZA managed to finish the NYSI trade up 30.7 percent. But FAZ (holy sow!) dropped from a 100 percent gain to a 16 percent loss in three days.

They also illustrate that Summation index is nothing more than the McClellan summed, and when the McClellan starts putting in lows above lows or highs below highs and starts trending up or trending down before the Summation's actually turn, it's a good to pay attention. There are no better warning signs in all the market that a turn is coming.

As Forrest Gump would say: "That's all I have to say about that."

Good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.c...3849&r=4705.png

http://stockcharts.c...27836&r=348.png

[diogenes227]

As we enter the 10 day of the Summation buy signal on the leveraged ETFs:

UWM is up 19 percent.
SSO us up 16 percent.
QLD is up 12 percent.
And the great TNA is up 28 percent.

Good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p16521773578&a=163053782&r=106.png

[diogenes227]

Just a weekly update: Buying the dips still working. Summation still climbing. Bulls still kicking bear butts. Rally still making new highs. Too simple to be believed? Ain't life grand?

[diogenes227]

Starting to get lower highs on the NYMO, a warning sign, and given the bear market... Also it should be noted that the Summation likes to run 25 days, give or take a few, and tomorrow will be the 22th day. Typically, we could have a dip right here (usually not that much, but this is a bear it could be sharper...), one more run, and then all bets are off for this rally. In the meantime selected leveraged ETFs since the Summation buy 21 days ago are up (as of today's close): TNA 59% UWM 40% QLD 31% SSO 29% Nice returns for 21 trading days. Might be a good time to take some profits, or at least tighten stops. Good trading to everyone.

[inamosa]

Thanks for the updates diogenes. I for one appreciate your work and consider you the resident expert on NYMO and NYSI cheers, Aly

[diogenes227]

Starting to get lower highs on the NYMO, a warning sign, and given the bear market...

Also it should be noted that the Summation likes to run 25 days, give or take a few, and tomorrow will be the 22th day. Typically, we could have a dip right here (usually not that much, but this is a bear it could be sharper...), one more run, and then all bets are off for this rally.

In the meantime selected leveraged ETFs since the Summation buy 21 days ago are up (as of today's close):

TNA 59%
UWM 40%
QLD 31%
SSO 29%

Nice returns for 21 trading days. Might be a good time to take some profits, or at least tighten stops.

Good trading to everyone.

On the charts above and below today's action did some damage. Had another high below a high on the NAMO (and NYMO too). If the McClellan is running like a clock, it starts sounding alarms, like the last divergent high below a high last week, and now this one today, the summations begin to tighten... As noted above the summations typically like to go up 25 days, give or take a few. Friday's high was the 26th day.

When the summations turn down, that will likely be the end of the rally. For now.

Damage done today to the leveraged ETFs above took them down to:

TNA 44%
UWM 32%
QLD 24%
SSO 21%

Still not bad for 27 trading days, and there may still be one more kick to the upside before the end.

Good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p00787307581&a=165889519&r=570.png

[diogenes227]

Just posted this on FF board. Copying it here because it relates.

Good trading to everyone.

mclellan oscilator is something i chitcanned in the 80.s

Oh, I only learnt it in 70's and I found you can use it in many different ways. Some of them may not work though.
BTW: Another thing I learnt in the past 30 years is that NYSI is severely lagging and useless.

Severely lagging and useless. I love that. I've been running a continuous thread on Swing Waves just to remind myself how severely lagging and useless it is. Darn, what happened? Market bottomed on March 9th and the NYSI didn't turn up until March 12? Severely lagged the bottom by three days! If it doesn't get you to buy the bottom tick and sell the top tick, it must be useless.

In fact, it's been so useless that since March 12 when it turned up TNA is up 80 percent, UWM is up 53 percent, SSO is up 32 percent, QLD is up 38 percent. They have all these leveraged ETFs now that can be parked on a market timing device like the NYSI but they're useless too. This says nothing about option plays.

On the last useless NYSI decline, FAZ and TZA doubled before getting slaughtered on the lag, and every time it lags it such an utter surprise since we'd never be caught using useless trailing stops. TNA is probably going to get creamed on the lag this time but it's up 80 PERCENT RIGHT NOW (take the profit!. or move that useless trailing stop!).

Yeah, it lags so severely who can believe it? Obviously no one trying to short for the last month. It's just so dumb! It doesn't even have three bullish counts and one bearish count, or was that three bearish counts and one bullish count? And it's just so simple! All it ever does is go up and go down, like a lever, like a teeter-totter, like a stripe on a endless spinning wheel, like...like...like...what?

THE MARKET?

What good it that?

[darnelds]

Nice work, Diogenese. Simple and effective.

[diogenes227]

Rally looks as if it went into high gear today, launching off the new low above a low on the NYMO. Trouble is every time it goes into high it's about one clutch depression away from reverse. Until the Summations turn down there is no reason to be bearish, no reason to be short, and there will be no sustained pullback, but this rally is very overextended. On Swing Waves, I've been highlighting the leveraged ETFs on the rally because they are so easy. Since the March 12 buy signal on the McClellan summations, TNA is up 97 percent now. When was the last time we saw a triple-leveraged ETF doubled on a market move? Actually, it was eight weeks ago when TNA's bear brother, TZA, doubled on the last market decline. FAZ also doubled on that decline (its counterpart, FAS, is only up 96 percent on this advance...boo-hoo). Both TZA and FAZ were ripped apart in the next three days. Wouldn't it be remarkable symmetry if TZA and FAS get ripped right about NOW? To continue the record, UWM is up 63 percent. SSO is up 43 percent. QLD is now up 47 percent. Thought I'd throw in a few stocks from some favorite sectors. In solar, CSIQ is up 155 percent, STP is up 142 percent, LDK is up 125 percent. In coal, MEE is up 103 percent. In steel, CLF is up 98 percent, AKN is up 141 percent. And if anyone has a penchant for gambling (and who playing the market doesn't?), WYNN is up 108 percent, MGM is up 197 percent, and LVS (ready for this? is up 436 percent! Dazzling. Dazzling. Dazzling. Isn't amazing to once again witness the power of the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index? The point is when there's a buy signal in the market you have to take the bet, and sometimes you get a little loser, and sometimes a little winner, but sometimes...you get LUCKY! By the way, since what goes up also goes down, I suspect everything mentioned above will soon be a fantastic short. Take profits, tighten stops and good trading to everyone.

[diogenes227]

Nasdaq Summation (NASI) turned down today. That is a sell.

The New York Summation (NYSI) is sitting right on the zero line so it's not a sell yet. Would have nice if they were in agreement. They probably will be soon, one way or the other.

On the NASI sell, have to take some profits. The leveraged ETFs we've been tracking here are:

UWM up 56.1%
SSO up 43.3%
QLD up 38.2%
TNA up 84%

Good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p00351773710&a=163053777&r=363.png