128 replies to this topic

[milbank]

test.

[diogenes227]

Monday:

"The Nasdaq Summation turned up Friday and managed to hold on today (barely) as the New York Summation (NYSI) joined it in positive territory. This a BUY.

Or at least it's a cover shorts. Given that most indexes are in a four-day advance, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one down day here which might whipsaw the Summations. But for now, it's go long, buy the dips, whatever one is comfortable with, until further notice. The market sides with the bulls."

Didn't get a chance to update this thread yesterday. Got the down day mentioned above, which took the Summations short yesterday, and with today's action whipsawed them long again. The long basket of SSO, QLD, and UWM, from Monday lost just under one percent (.83 percent) on the yesterday's sell. The short basket of SDS, QID, and TWM lost 2.7 percent on today's buy. Ain't whipsaws wonderful?

The NYSI and the NASI are both long again as of today's close. Will be tracking SSO, QLD, and UWM.

Good trading to everyone.

[diogenes227]

Diogenes -- great thread. I've been lurking for quite a while.

Question: I notice a "ledge" has formed on the NYSI. I once read that ledges are bases to "fall off of" and wonder if you agree with that. IOW, is there a history of ledges preceding falls?

Thanks.

I agree ledges are usually made to fall off of, but at the moment I don't think that is much of a ledge (a couple more days along that line and I'll change my mind). As to your second question, falls are not necessarily preceded by ledges. Falls can come at any time, with or without a ledges.

Good trading to you.

It appears the ledge formed and the market fell off of it this week...

Unfortunately, not without another whipsaw as the summations both turned up Wednesday to trap the bulls. A basket of leveraged ETFs -- SSO, QLD, UWM -- lost five percent Thursday. Painful. Does anyone know where Michael Jackson's doctor is hanging out? Could use some serious painkillers here.

Short now -- SDS, QID, TWM...

If the drop off the ledge follows through, however, this trade could make up the loss and then some rather quickly.

Good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.c...3863&r=6419.png

Edited by diogenes227, 04 July 2009 - 09:11 PM.

[diogenes227]

By the way Happy Fourth of July!

Edited by diogenes227, 04 July 2009 - 09:15 PM.

[Scott-stock]

Diogenes Any update? Thanks really enjoy your comments

[diogenes227]

Was on vacation and traveling last week so did not get to update this thread in a timely fashion.

But obviously, there was a turn on both summation indexes, the New York (NYSI) on 7/14, and the Nasdaq (NASI) a day later, 7/15.

Interesting lag between the two in relation to the short leveraged ETFs (SDS, QID, TWM) -- if one closed on the NYSI turn, the loss was a piddling .84 percent, on the NASI, the loss was 7.4 percent.

Also on the question of lag, it should be noted that since the first break (5/12) in the summations' up trends off the March lows it was about 40 trading days out when this turn came. Forty days is about all one can ask for a summation decline (and in this case the market went an extremely bullish sideways with an upward bias!), so the aggressive trader should be watching the Oscillators for an early sign of the turn (see blue circles on the chart below, and note the oversold on the CCI at the same time).

Regardless, the long leveraged ETFs are now in place and up a lot on this bullish blast. At the moment I have the NAZ comp up 9 days in a row?! Probably time for a pullback but so what? For now this is all buy the dips, calls, stock breakout, etc...

Good trading to all.

http://stockcharts.c...3862&r=6374.png

[johngeorge]

diogenes227

Trust this is what you were looking for.

Best to you.


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p24593602738&r=1134.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NASI&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p24593602738&r=8172.png

[diogenes227]

Update from FF:

Probably could use an update here since this is getting rather exuberant (12th consecutive day up on the Nasdaq, and a pure trending day so far at that!). Since the NY summation buy signal seven days ago (7/14), the basket of leveraged ETFs -- SSO, QLD, UWM -- being tracked on Swing Waves is up, at the moment, nearly 19 percent.

Good trading to all.

http://stockcharts.c...30714&r=795.png

[diogenes227]

Don't want to think too much here. Thinking tends to put you on the wrong side of a trade or get you out of the trade you finally have right (see FF board for details )...

But...

The NYSI amd NASI buys are now 10 days old and the primary basket of leveraged ETFs on this trade -- SSO, QLD, UWM -- are up just over 20 percent. The Russell basket I like -- the UWM two timer and the TNA three timer -- is up just over 30 percent.

Some notable stock gains during this run include ISRG up 72 points, BIDU up 52 points, FSLR up 25 points, AAPL up 17 points. And for the many who have pronounced the newspaper business dead, they must be feeling like toothpaste squeezed out of the tube by now -- McClatchy (MNI), up 276 percent; Media General (MEG), up 147 percent; and Gannett (GCI), up 85 percent. Ten days. (Note below, the news group tends to rise and fall very nicely with the summation index.)

What's the point at this point?

Might be time for a NYMO/NAMO dip to the zero line. Tighten stops if one is so inclined and good trading to everyone.

http://stockcharts.c...02&are=6742.png

http://stockcharts.c...98&are=8470.png

[itrytowin]

diogenes Yesterday brought a tick down...red line...on the NASI. Yet you did not go short. Are you waiting for the NYSI to confirm the change? Do you trust the NYSI more than the NASI? I'm very much impressed by this system since I first found you posting on the FF thread, and would like to learn more of your thought process that goes into taking or not taking a trade. I've studied this thread back to November and for a few of the trades it appears you made a move to the opposite side when only one of the indicators (NASI or NYSI) goes against the present trend. And for others you waited until you had confirmation with both? Thank you for any insights you can provide. Consider me an eager student.