128 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

"NYSI and NASI once again gave sells on Friday."

These indicators are not updated until after the close. Who made 8% today after it gapped up unless they are front-running the signal?

Trade station has the McClellan Oscillator in real time. eSignal can export data to excel to give the Oscillator in real time. It can also be calculated manually in excel with Advance/Decline numbers. There may be other sources...

But you make a valid point. I use Trade Station. I've been waiting for Stockcharts to update for these posts so the change can be seen on the chart, but in the future if I'm logged on as it turns, I will try to post the real time signal before the close.

Thanks for the post and good trading to you.

[edamat]

"I will try to post the real time signal before the close." yes, diogenes, that would be very helpful, appreciate it very much.

[diogenes227]

"I will try to post the real time signal before the close."

yes, diogenes, that would be very helpful, appreciate it very much.

I tell you, the market is diabolical. It laughs uproariously at we mere mortals.

I said I'd try to post real time NYSI and NASI signals before the close if I could. Well, wouldn't you know it? The market laughs. In Trade Station, at five minutes before the close I had the NYSI and NASI both negative, and then one minute before the close I had the NASI up four points and the NYSI down four points and both ticking wildly, so all I can say is this turn, if there was one, is too close to call. Will need to wait for Stockcharts to see where the numbers are.

Regardless, this is only context. If there was a buy signal today, that will only be the backdrop going forward for which side of the market to be on. And if it's still a sell, it's still a sell.

The basket of short leveraged ETFs -- SDS, QID, TWM -- are on today's close down 1.2 percent for the swing. Not bad but they were up more than 5 percent before the current three-day bounce. I think that would, in context, have called for a stop at break even but that depends on individual risk tolerances.

Good trading to everyone.

[edamat]

ok, diogenes, many thanks. what now? $NYSI up or down? long or short?

[diogenes227]

ok, diogenes, many thanks.
what now? $NYSI up or down? long or short?

Long.

Unless there's some radical sell off into the close today, it appears the NASI called the shot yesterday. It was up 8 or so points in the last minute before the close giving a buy signal. The NYSI was down a couple of points still on the sell.

I often think about adding those two guys together and dividing them by two but that's too complicated.

It's becoming increasing clear the March rally has changed the entire tenor of the market. Note the declining highs in the NYMO (the blue box below) and yet the market could not sell off. That is not always but most often the sign of a sea change. In addition, during the bear market, nearly every time the McClellan Oscillators got overbought, the market had a significant sell off (see the red lines on the left side of the charts below) and every time the Oscillators become oversold, the market hardly rallied. Now, if the July rally and the last four days are any indication, whenever the Oscillators get overbought, the market hardly sells off and when they get oversold the market screams to the upside.

This is good to know.

So given there are buy signals on both the NYSI and NASI, it's time to play the long side, buy the ETFs -- SSO, QLD, UWM -- or stocks or calls or whatever one is comfortable with given individual risk tolerances. FAS, TNA are my first preference but I like a lot of stocks too.

It should be noted the market is up four days and a bit overbought on the dailies so maybe buying the dips going forward might be more prudent. Another cautionary note: this rally may be a continuation of the July McClellan cycle and if so it may not live much longer before a more significant correction hits (the usual September/October blues for the bulls).

Whether or not this is a bull (and it's sure acting like one), I'd still play the ups and downs of the summations going forward. Be long as they rise, be flat or short as they decline. Simple.

Good trading to everyone.

For some longer-term prospective:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2007-10-10&i=p94426138937&a=161122330&are=4056.png

And for a closer look:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p43325448296&a=163053782&are=7194.png

[diogenes227]

I stand corrected. McClellan Financial Publications, DecisionPoint, and Stockcharts all had the NYSI up a couple of points Thursday, 8/20. So officially
both the NYSI and the NASI gave buys yesterday. With the turn coming right on the close, there was not much to do with it unless one is willing to jump in the the next day's open. Still, a buy's a buy and the signal is in place.

By the way, I recommend McClellan Financial Publications to anyone wishing to learn more about these oscillators.

McCLELLAN FINANCIAL PUBLICATIONS

Good trading to everyone.

[diogenes227]

If they closed the market right now, the NYSI would be down 3 points or so, and NASI up 9 points. Another nail-biter that could swing on the last tick. More later.

[diogenes227]

If they closed the market right now, the NYSI would be down 3 points or so, and NASI up 9 points. Another nail-biter that could swing on the last tick.

More later.

And the NYSI swung back to positive on the close. I have the NYSI up 4 points in trade station, the NASI up 18. So never mind. The summation buy remains intact. The leveraged ETF basket -- SSO, QLD, UWM -- is up 4.2 percent since the NASI buy on 8/20, up only .8 percent on the NYSI buy, 8/21.

Good trading to everyone.

[edamat]

If they closed the market right now, the NYSI would be down 3 points or so, and NASI up 9 points. Another nail-biter that could swing on the last tick.

More later.

And the NYSI swung back to positive on the close. I have the NYSI up 4 points in trade station, the NASI up 18. So never mind. The summation buy remains intact. The leveraged ETF basket -- SSO, QLD, UWM -- is up 4.2 percent since the NASI buy on 8/20, up only .8 percent on the NYSI buy, 8/21.

Good trading to everyone.

thanks for the update, Diogenes.

look at charts, both NYSI and NASI turned up on 8/20, just that NASI up more. so what's the criteria to say NASI is a buy and NYSI a day later? like if it's up certain points?

again, appreciate your work and thanks in advance.

[diogenes227]

Barring a sudden surge to the upside into the close, both the NYSI and the NASI will be down, giving solid sell signals today. Good trading to everyone.