28 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

I am looking for a decline today in the NASDAQ 100. Bought QID this am for a day trade. Will see.

Closed out position @ breakeven.

[diogenes227]

The grass got me too. Covered GDX. Actually made an infinitesimal profit. Actually if the GDX can close up today, the odds of a sharp decline Monday are astronomical, but won't believe it until I see it starting on the open. Good trading to everyone.

[dougie]

"Actually if the GDX can close up today, the odds of a sharp decline Monday are astronomical, but won't believe it until I see it starting on the open." why?

[diogenes227]

"Actually if the GDX can close up today, the odds of a sharp decline Monday are astronomical, but won't believe it until I see it starting on the open."

why?

Just counting the cards. GDX has only managed to advance five days in a row three other times in the last year before today, and on each of those occasions, it sold off the next day, and on two of those, it sold off hard for a few days in a row. Of course it can keep going up (back in 2006 it went up seven days once and six days once before getting ripped) but five days up in a row is rare event and the chance of it being down the next day, at least this year, is as astronomical as it gets -- 100 percent.

In addition it is up nearly three standard deviations of an average advance -- that's a very nice move but it's also a rubber band that stretched pretty much to the limit.

No big deal. What goes up, also goes down. It's just yet another opportunity to make a trade.

Good trading to you.

[dharma]

after 3 hourly divergences on xau/hui the market is in corrective mode. the market is in support here, although i doubt these levels hold. 90 on xau has a better chance of holding, 90.27 is the .382. lets see how the market responds @that #. dharma

[dougie]

thanks for the most excellent reply!

[dougie]

SO who sees this down as impulsive and who thinks this is just a 2 correction?

[dharma]

oversold on hourlies, 87.3=50% looks to me like we could be finishing the a wave of this correction today, if not the whole thing, although i think more time needs to elapse. so my preferred is a. dharma

[diogenes227]

"Actually if the GDX can close up today, the odds of a sharp decline Monday are astronomical, but won't believe it until I see it starting on the open."

why?

oversold on hourlies, 87.3=50% looks to me like we could be finishing the a wave of this correction today, if not the whole thing, although i think more time needs to elapse. so my preferred is a.
dharma

Closing day trade from open. Bit over four percent. What a great market for traders!

Good trading to everyone.