HGNSI Market Watch
Started by
SilentOne
, Dec 02 2008 11:38 AM
20 replies to this topic
#11
jack
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Posted 02 December 2008 - 07:57 PM
Silent one
thx for your posts, I believe you have the attention of most lurking GC allocators.
#12
cedartree
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Posted 02 December 2008 - 10:14 PM
Silent,
I kinda wonder if 2 is as low as we can get on this HGNSI. The fundamentals just seem SO strong for gold with all the CB's pumping away... If the only choice is fiat or gold well a gold bug practically has to be knocked senseless to totally go over to the bear side! Its suprising to me that we even got down to 2, and now we have lower overhead costs for the miners...after this huge drop we gotta be lots closer to a bottom than a top...
#13
jack
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Posted 02 December 2008 - 11:14 PM
The 66000 contracts short for comms I gave is as of last Tue. (Options not included)
Checked two sources, I was wrong. I subracted large trade long from comm short instead of
short commercial minus long commercial.
corrected number--- commercial net short= 93,235 100oz gold contracts comex Nov 25,2008
higher if you include options.
#14
diogenes227
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Posted 03 December 2008 - 12:50 AM
The buck stops here. And if it doesn't... The trouble with currencies is, when they turn, they stay turned a long, long time. If the dollar has turned, you can stuff all the gold fundamentals in a safety-deposit box and wait for eight or ten years to break even.
I'm just going to keep trading the swings and forget any long term.
Good luck to all gold longs. 
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#15
SilentOne
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Posted 03 December 2008 - 10:04 AM
dougie,
The major bottom in May 2005 had gold newsletter writers recommending net short. By the HGNSI figures, 25% of goldletter writers were advising subscribers to be short and this was on the day the market bottomed. The HUI decline from 248 to 163, a net drop of a mere 85 points. This decline occured into a Hurst 4.5 year low. Need I say more.
Now scroll forward and we have a 370 point HUI decline and the gold newsletter writers can't get more bearish (HGNSI +2)? Come on. I wasn't born yesterday. The HGNSI is the best barometer that I know in this sector and yet posters constantly question it? Thus my comment that no one seems to learn from it.
My advice is trade this sector for the next year. My cycle work supports this and has not been wrong.
cheers,
john
i know this has been discussed John, but tell me: have you plotted Hulberts sentiment measure against HUI?
care to do so and enlighten me?
The major bottom in May 2005 had gold newsletter writers recommending net short. By the HGNSI figures, 25% of goldletter writers were advising subscribers to be short and this was on the day the market bottomed. The HUI decline from 248 to 163, a net drop of a mere 85 points. This decline occured into a Hurst 4.5 year low. Need I say more.
Now scroll forward and we have a 370 point HUI decline and the gold newsletter writers can't get more bearish (HGNSI +2)? Come on. I wasn't born yesterday. The HGNSI is the best barometer that I know in this sector and yet posters constantly question it? Thus my comment that no one seems to learn from it.
My advice is trade this sector for the next year. My cycle work supports this and has not been wrong.
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 03 December 2008 - 10:07 AM.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#16
tradesurfer
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Posted 03 December 2008 - 12:36 PM
why on earth would commercials be net long gold if they thought the price was going to crash from here. they are net long according to tim ord.
http://www.mysmp.com...ket-update.html
tim ord is one of the best gold timers out there and he is bullish, he says commercials are net long above the bands, the same way they were at the major bottom of 2006.
http://www.mysmp.com...ket-update.html
tim ord is one of the best gold timers out there and he is bullish, he says commercials are net long above the bands, the same way they were at the major bottom of 2006.
#17
dougie
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Posted 03 December 2008 - 03:29 PM
John: thanks for the analysis
HGNSI is the best barometer, but you only gave us one data point...is there any easy way i can get more data points ot plot myself?
#18
SilentOne
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Posted 03 December 2008 - 04:08 PM
dougie,
I don't know why this is so difficult to get. The current correction for the PMs is into a 9 and 4.5 year low. It is a major low that we are headed into. It won't bottom until next fall at the earliest. Given we are sliding into a major low (bigger than May 2005), and this is the first leg down, you'd think we'd get some major bearishness here. But we can't because the goldbugs are hanging on. So we will put in a leg A bottom here, bounce and then do this all over again sometime down the road. I would expect that then we will see the apporpriate level of bearishness. The bottom line is this is a bear market rally. So trade it and treat it as such. BTW, when we get to that final low for the 4.5 and 9 year lows, there will be days where no one will post here. The HGNSI will be well under zero, and most people won't want to throw a stick at PMs.
Good luck.
cheers,
john
but you only gave us one data point...
I don't know why this is so difficult to get. The current correction for the PMs is into a 9 and 4.5 year low. It is a major low that we are headed into. It won't bottom until next fall at the earliest. Given we are sliding into a major low (bigger than May 2005), and this is the first leg down, you'd think we'd get some major bearishness here. But we can't because the goldbugs are hanging on. So we will put in a leg A bottom here, bounce and then do this all over again sometime down the road. I would expect that then we will see the apporpriate level of bearishness. The bottom line is this is a bear market rally. So trade it and treat it as such. BTW, when we get to that final low for the 4.5 and 9 year lows, there will be days where no one will post here. The HGNSI will be well under zero, and most people won't want to throw a stick at PMs.
Good luck.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#19
dougie
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Posted 03 December 2008 - 06:13 PM
WEll, you may well be right, but what in the world does that have to do with my question?
#20
jack
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Posted 03 December 2008 - 06:48 PM
why on earth would commercials be net long gold if they thought the price was going to crash from here. they are net long according to tim ord.
COT data source for meCFTC.GOV
Every Friday Goldseek also publishes so you can check you have pulled
out the #s accurately. This data shows Commercials net short (even on smaller Chicago GC market)
we are off thread topic so if more needs to be said we should start another thread
