Edited by selecto, 24 December 2006 - 03:37 PM.
Ecomony about to take off
#11
Posted 24 December 2006 - 03:36 PM
#12
Posted 24 December 2006 - 03:44 PM
I am broadly in agreement with you that randomness is a much more significant factor in market outcomes than most traders recognize. However, if it was a totally random walk, there would be no point in anything but buy and hold investing based on a presumption of LT growth. In any event, I appreciate the courtesy of your reply and wish you the best in the year ahead.jawdissedi,
No offense ment. What I did mean is that in the economy or markets each time is a difference roll of the dice. The dice have no memory. What happens before has no effect on what will happen now. There is no way the variables will be the same in each case. And they would have to be for the past to be a map of the future. The trouble in the housing sector may or may not roil the general economy. At this time no one knows. The point I am making is that the future is unknowable and looking for a pattern based on what happened in the past is a useless endevor. It is a random walk.
Charles
Edited by jawndissedi, 24 December 2006 - 03:45 PM.
#13
Posted 24 December 2006 - 04:13 PM
#14
Posted 24 December 2006 - 05:53 PM
#15
Posted 25 December 2006 - 02:51 PM
#16
Posted 25 December 2006 - 07:20 PM
#17
Posted 26 December 2006 - 12:33 PM
#18
Posted 19 May 2007 - 01:32 PM
ECRI weekly leading indicator growth starting from 9/29
-.6
-1.0
-.5
-.1
-.1
+.3
+1.2
+1.6
+1.5
+1.8
+2.8
+3.4
http://www.businesscycle.com/
ECRI monitors over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes for major economies covering more than 85% of world GDP. We regularly interpret this data to form a sophisticated cyclical forecast which is available by subscription.
As The Economist magazine recently noted, "ECRI is perhaps the only organization to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm."
ECRI weekly leading indicator growth starting from 4/20:
+4.0
+4.4
+5.2
+6.1
Now at the highest level in years
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#19
Posted 30 December 2007 - 08:33 AM
This week's index at -5.2% has now entered the recession zone:
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, agrees that "doomsayers" who predicted a recession in 2007 have been proved wrong.
"But looking forward at 2008, we've got problems," he said.
The ECRI leading U.S. index's growth rate has hit a 5-year low of -4.8%. Typically a -5% to -6% reading is needed for a recession.
Housing is getting worse, he says, and "we're starting to see layoffs."
http://www.businessc...ews/press/1367/
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.