YES. Yes we have topped!!!
#1
Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:08 AM
Topping process complete?
Have We Topped?
Have we topped?
hAVE wE tOPPED?
Have we topped?
#2
Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:11 AM
the recognition wave is here, meltup in progress......no more pullbacks....straight up....buy...buy...buy..ok, maybe not, but 5 topics on topping today...... what does it mean?
Topping process complete?
Have We Topped?
Have we topped?
hAVE wE tOPPED?
Have we topped?
twm....buy...twm....buy..
#3
Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:17 AM
#4
Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:22 AM
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#5
Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:27 AM
#6
Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:31 AM
I only count 4 tops
#7
Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:32 AM
Are we there yet?
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#8
Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:38 AM
It's the grown-up way of asking:
Are we there yet?
When I grow up, I want to be a fire engine.
#9
Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:42 AM
Wrong Way Corrigans
Tonight let's take a look at another indicator from my arsenal of proprietary sentiment gauges. I like to call this one the WWCI, which stands for "Wrong Way Corrigans Indicator". I call it this because it gives a very accurate read on the sentiment of the small retail dumb money crowd that is quite consistently wrong on the market. The WWCI is derived by using raw options data from various exchanges in such a way as to segregate out the trades made by the group of investors that I would deem "Wrong Way Corrigans".
The chart above shows the current configuration of of the WWCI. The sell signals occur when the blue line rises to the upper red line and the buy signals occur when the blue line falls to the lower green line. As the chart shows, the last sell signal occurred in January 2006, and then a new buy signal occurred in June 2006. Since then the indicator has not only failed to give a sell signal but has not even made it back to a neutral reading. Currently it is on the verge of giving a repeat buy signal. And for those chartists out there the pattern in this indicator since June 2006 looks an awful lot like a "cup and handle" formation, which would indicate a pending explosive increase in bullish sentiment (like the one I have been predicting here of late).
------------------------------------------------------
(And his comments on Hedge Funds....)
Hedge Funds All Beared Up
The monthly Van Hedge Fund Sentiment Poll for February shows:
20% Bulls
50% Bears
So we have the Lowrisk Poll showing small investors heavily bearish, and now the Hedge Fund Poll showing that Hedge Fund managers are heavily bearish. The bear camp is looking awfully crowded these days.
------------------------------------------------------
The Forest for the Trees
Sometimes as traders we get so caught up in what the market is going to do over the next few days, hours, minutes, (seconds???), that we lose track of where the market is in the big picture. In other words we "can't see the forest for the trees". Well tonight I'm going to take a step back from the very short-term "trees" to take a good hard look at that forest.
The first chart shown above is my proprietary indicator called the Speculate-O-Meter (for a brief description of this indicator see this previous post). On this chart of the Speculate-O-Meter, I have annotated some descriptions taken from the well known "cycle of market emotions" shown in the second chart. While the Speculate-O-Meter is more choppy than the idealized market cycle chart shown below it, there are striking similarities between the two charts as there should be. And, when viewing these two charts in tandem it becomes astoundingly clear that this current bull rally is still in the very early stages of the cycle from despondency to euphoria, or as I like to put it from fear to greed.
Based on my Speculate-O-Meter, the market emotional cycle has been in the hope phase, and should be entering the relief phase very shortly if not already there. And what will be the source of this "relief"? I expect it will come on several fronts:
1) Relief that oil and commodity prices are falling and that inflation is tame, thus relief that no more interest rate hikes are needed
2) Relief that the housing market has stabilized and the economy is not going over the cliff.
3) Relief that the bear market is over when the S&P500 hits a new all-time high.
And there may be many other reasons for relief, but in short the relief will be a result of widely held pessimistic expectations not coming to pass. Then after the relief phase comes optimism, excitement, thrill, and finally euphoria before the bull market ends. And if you are an aggressive growth investor these final stages tend to be very rewarding. So, if we get a pullback tomorrow lets try not to get to caught up in those trees.
#10
Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:50 AM
~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~