Terminal Move is underway...
#11
Posted 15 July 2007 - 12:00 PM
#12
Posted 15 July 2007 - 01:44 PM
Semi..you've been brilliant and can see that possibility with my work on SPX...not volume related though.
....The count is very bullish that I have on spx if we are topping or have topped a wave 1 of an ending diagonal that would target the 1590/1600 area on internal technical fumes....I can't rule that out at the moment ......HOWEVER.....if we hit 1561.80 SPX BEFORE a decent pull back to the 1533/39 area...............that would be a HUGE warning to me that 1530 is going to fail to act as support and we have put in a substantial top with a bull trap having been sprung. Coming down to that 1533/39 area and holding before we hit 1561.80 keeps those higher targets alive.
I do have other technical reasons for the rally possibly failing at that 1561.80 number but it's my own odd ball stuff that would confuse if I explained it all..plus some of it I would prefer to keep to myself....... I will say though....TRAN is a chart that bugs me..
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p72820422618&a=34410261&r=7837.png
#13
Posted 15 July 2007 - 02:19 PM
mclaren is great but is not as certain now as he was before
must not correct more than 3 or 4 days - in a row? or just 3 or 4 negative days at any point since the start of the trend
Consecutive Candle Count, 3 or 4 red would be enought to SUSPECT that the trend could be broken, certainly the fast uptrend part...as long as we don't get more than 2 days downtrend (red candles)in succession we will stay in fast uptrend.
Take a look at this chart for more clarification. All the way up the fast uptrend there was at no time more than 2 successive down days. There was a stealth sign of weakness (big price on light volume - 10 successive up days the last 5 on progressively ligher volume/133 pts) that truncated after the Thanksgiving Holidays in a big red spike down. Then the signal of further weakness was 3 red, we see it again in January and then at the end of a weak volume move confirming the uptrend (6 successive green)on 2/22 another big reaction. But you will note that the uptrend stayed in place because we never did get 5 red in succession. The last time we saw 5 successive red candles was October of 2005(not shown on this chart) and it was immediately reversed on 5 successive greens or more the following month.
So those with bearish dreams of short and hold better get a wake up call here....
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#14
Posted 15 July 2007 - 02:40 PM
What is different this time is that congestion we had and the struggle to get out of the previous range. There are several sets of 3 red candles... and that is a big heads up that this is probably a parabolic blowoff...
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#15
Posted 15 July 2007 - 03:09 PM
OK, just one more chart and I'll shut up... this is 1999/2000, you can see again after 5 red candles in October they turned it back up on 5 green in December. The first sign of trouble is the 3 red again in December. We see it again at the end of January. Then we see another long chain of 7 green, we see the 3 red pattern again in March and that was the breaking point. A parabolic high is made on progressively lighter volume, followed up by a gap down day on lighter volume finishing above the open and then a strong 5 red candles to the downside confirming the trend reversal came shortly thereafter....
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#16
Posted 15 July 2007 - 04:03 PM
#17
Posted 15 July 2007 - 04:32 PM
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#18
Posted 15 July 2007 - 06:05 PM
Here's the equity contract costs for last week, perhaps a (sharp) pull back and then a rally into next month until another euphoria...
Where do they find all this money?!?
- kisa