Cycles...
#1
Posted 12 October 2007 - 11:42 PM
#2
Posted 12 October 2007 - 11:54 PM
#3
Posted 13 October 2007 - 12:03 AM
#4
Posted 13 October 2007 - 12:05 AM
Now there's 1987 crash crap tossing around. I don't believe crashes can occur easily anymore. I do believe in 2002 style melt down, though. It can happen over a long time.
Actually, i am going to disagree with you completely here. For a 2002 style meltdown to occur, you need to be already in a well established monthly downtrend. Money managers are not morons to liquidate persitently into a bull market. A monthly bear trend should already in place for them to capitulate in that fashion. A 1987 stlye is relatively a better bet, cuz it can come out of the blue and catch most unawares, where trend is not a consideration. However, personally, i am not betting on either. For 2002, we don't have the conditions. For 1987 style, they are not predictable by definition.
Edited by NAV, 13 October 2007 - 12:10 AM.
#5
Posted 13 October 2007 - 12:12 AM
#6
Posted 13 October 2007 - 12:26 AM
But I've posted it here, for my record. If it materializes, I'll look like a friggin genius. If not, I'll be one of 1000 wrong predictions.
Got you
If it does, you da FRACengr.
#7
Posted 13 October 2007 - 02:41 AM
#8
Posted 13 October 2007 - 05:51 AM
#9
Posted 13 October 2007 - 07:49 AM
Terry Landry, known as "T Theory" feels that whatever "juice" we get here from this current rally could be the end of the bonanza that started in 2002/3
Terry is one of those guys you either "get" or not, but his work is pluperfect and really worth reading. Up to you whether you agree or not...
So I think its going to be interesting to see how Terry's heavily studied "T" cycles work with Airedale's magnificent cycle studies which are currently at odds for the "big" picture..
http://ttheory.typepad.com
mm
#10
Posted 13 October 2007 - 09:02 AM
The major blue line below is the only hope for the bears to be crossed by the 20 wk cycle low. If the SPX meets the 1680 target very early by the middle of Nov , then there is a chance to have a big decline to 1440-1460 only from such a blow off --or another more than 10% correction.
A 6-8% pull back might happen, but another large correction is very very unlikely though since if you look at how the 12% correction occured, it took about at least a month of increasing volatility ahead of it. So, you need to get a pretty severe volatility started already by the middle of Dec, or in the second half of Nov and this is just nearly impossible, people will be getting ready to go to Thanksgiving then. If it happens, we will be ready.
Your chances for the next correction is much higher around the 40 wk cycle low in about 7 months, or at the middle of April into May.
I was asking about this to Airedale a few days ago, here's the entire message...
Gokhan, i highlighted the answer. it's called an fld gap. prices will stop since there is no cascade downward.Hi ..., the 20 wk FLD is now broken to the upside, but the longer term FLDs are quite a bit below the current levels and obviously they can not trigger any more upside, how do you interpret this configuration for the trend? Should these act like support, especially the 40 wk FLD?
It is nearly impossible for the longer term FLDs to be broken at the next 20 wk cycle low, does this mean there is a lot of air to fall through if the 20 wk FLD gets broken? or it is nearly impossible to get a big decline there since there won't be any longer term FLD to be triggered?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p61303037028&r=2134&.png
Just trying to learn, thank you for your time and sharing your knowledge...
Best,
Gokhan
due to the very strong trend, other cyclic tools, half span mv avg extrapolations, mid channel pauses, etc, have to be used for upside projections not available from 40 and 80 wk flds.
...
Edited by kisacik, 13 October 2007 - 09:09 AM.