Eventually, the govt will start selling its assets.
What assets ? They got only liabilities
Difficulty of picking tops in hyper-liquid markets
#21
Posted 09 April 2010 - 11:41 AM
Love, be kind to one another, seek the truth, walk the narrow path between the ying and the yang.
#22
Posted 09 April 2010 - 11:45 AM
Eventually, the govt will start selling its assets.
What assets ? They got only liabilities
Unless, Arbman was talking about Bernanke and Geithner
#23
Posted 09 April 2010 - 11:46 AM
Guess it depends on which liquid we lookin' at...
Viscuosity index is high on this one.....not sure if I got the word right, think molasses.....
GS.
I was thinkin more like the Hershey Squirts...
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#24
Posted 09 April 2010 - 12:09 PM
I came up with the 1220-1230 target around early March when the market was rallying from 1080-1090 support. I expected another low in March that came at the end of February instead and never looked back. I did write in a timely fashion though that the 1120 resistance was going to be taken instead of a pull back. The market (actually Fed) has been much more aggressive than I thought due to weak Euro, but I think the funds also did the same in their equity buying, so we had this huge rally. Now, I am still expecting the very same 1220-1230 target that many are realizing as a good resistance and target zone. I think 1220-1230 will be exceeded in summer, unless the markets sell off severely into the 16 wk cycle low due from the middle to end of May...
BTW, I also voted up in the weekly polls for the entire March, in some of them there were only maybe 10% of the voters with me... Amazing.
Edited by arbman, 09 April 2010 - 12:17 PM.
#25
Posted 09 April 2010 - 12:18 PM
snorkel,
One more thing. Feel free to disagree with me or call me a fool. Fed controls squat !. They are a slave to bond markets. They will follow the bond markets. It's the bond market that makes Fed look like genuises or fools. It's based on market cycles. Where were all the supporters of "Don't fight the fed" argument hiding when the market was falling off the cliff and the Fed was watching helplessly ? The markets were severly oversold and we were at the end of a down cycle with beaten down yields on the long bonds which enables the Fed to pump that massive liquidity. If the Fed tries the same stunt at the peak of a upmarket cycle, the bonds will crash - Period !. The Greeks look like clowns today. Tommorow, the same fate will hit America, if the drunken sailors don't rollback their spending plans and nonsense stimulus measures and buying of crappy assets. Otherwise, the oversupply in bonds will show the Fed as to who's the boss. The chinese are now entering an era of trade deficits for the first time this quarter. They ain't gonna buy U.S bonds with both their hands anymore. The drama is only beginning !
so true, so true!!
#26
Posted 09 April 2010 - 12:48 PM
snorkel,
One more thing. Feel free to disagree with me or call me a fool. Fed controls squat !. They are a slave to bond markets. They will follow the bond markets. It's the bond market that makes Fed look like genuises or fools. It's based on market cycles. Where were all the supporters of "Don't fight the fed" argument hiding when the market was falling off the cliff and the Fed was watching helplessly ? The markets were severly oversold and we were at the end of a down cycle with beaten down yields on the long bonds which enables the Fed to pump that massive liquidity. If the Fed tries the same stunt at the peak of a upmarket cycle, the bonds will crash - Period !. The Greeks look like clowns today. Tommorow, the same fate will hit America, if the drunken sailors don't rollback their spending plans and nonsense stimulus measures and buying of crappy assets. Otherwise, the oversupply in bonds will show the Fed as to who's the boss. The chinese are now entering an era of trade deficits for the first time this quarter. They ain't gonna buy U.S bonds with both their hands anymore. The drama is only beginning !
so true, so true!!
i would never call anyone a fool here--sorry if implied
yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????
http://www.zimbio.co...Veyron Crashing
#27
Posted 09 April 2010 - 12:56 PM
#28
Posted 09 April 2010 - 01:12 PM
yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????
What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.
#29
Posted 09 April 2010 - 01:34 PM
isnt that quantitative easing or something like thatyea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????
What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.
i am no expert
http://www.zimbio.co...Veyron Crashing
#30
Posted 09 April 2010 - 01:44 PM
yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????
What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.
The loudest bells I ever heard rung in my 44 years in the game was at the Fed 2008 meeting and the bond buying binge they said they were about to embark in the very near future and then at their March 2009 meeting when they said they had begun the buying. This has already been discussed here a few times in the past. So what did they achieve? December 2008 was the launch of the greatest junk bond rally in recorded history which continues unabated to this very day and March 2009 was the launch of one of the greatest 13 month stock market rallies in recorded history which also continues unabated to this very day.