35 replies to this topic

[zoropb]

Eventually, the govt will start selling its assets.

What assets ? They got only liabilities

[NAV]

Eventually, the govt will start selling its assets.

What assets ? They got only liabilities

Unless, Arbman was talking about Bernanke and Geithner

[SemiBizz]

Guess it depends on which liquid we lookin' at...

Viscuosity index is high on this one.....not sure if I got the word right, think molasses.....

GS.

I was thinkin more like the Hershey Squirts...

[arbman]

In my methods, the price targets matter more than the supporting volume or other technicals, even breadth is less important. The main reason is I am not (yet) a major player to move billions through these markets and all I care is whether through some index manipulation of the heavier weighting issues they can actually hit them or not. Most of the time, the indices will go much further than anyone can anticipate because there will be the crowd effect that will push the prices higher or lower to extremes, NOBODY can clearly predict those levels, but you could get out of the harm's way when the market blows either up or down...

I came up with the 1220-1230 target around early March when the market was rallying from 1080-1090 support. I expected another low in March that came at the end of February instead and never looked back. I did write in a timely fashion though that the 1120 resistance was going to be taken instead of a pull back. The market (actually Fed) has been much more aggressive than I thought due to weak Euro, but I think the funds also did the same in their equity buying, so we had this huge rally. Now, I am still expecting the very same 1220-1230 target that many are realizing as a good resistance and target zone. I think 1220-1230 will be exceeded in summer, unless the markets sell off severely into the 16 wk cycle low due from the middle to end of May...

BTW, I also voted up in the weekly polls for the entire March, in some of them there were only maybe 10% of the voters with me... Amazing.

Edited by arbman, 09 April 2010 - 12:17 PM.

[TMN]

snorkel,

One more thing. Feel free to disagree with me or call me a fool. Fed controls squat !. They are a slave to bond markets. They will follow the bond markets. It's the bond market that makes Fed look like genuises or fools. It's based on market cycles. Where were all the supporters of "Don't fight the fed" argument hiding when the market was falling off the cliff and the Fed was watching helplessly ? The markets were severly oversold and we were at the end of a down cycle with beaten down yields on the long bonds which enables the Fed to pump that massive liquidity. If the Fed tries the same stunt at the peak of a upmarket cycle, the bonds will crash - Period !. The Greeks look like clowns today. Tommorow, the same fate will hit America, if the drunken sailors don't rollback their spending plans and nonsense stimulus measures and buying of crappy assets. Otherwise, the oversupply in bonds will show the Fed as to who's the boss. The chinese are now entering an era of trade deficits for the first time this quarter. They ain't gonna buy U.S bonds with both their hands anymore. The drama is only beginning !

so true, so true!!

[snorkels4]

snorkel,

One more thing. Feel free to disagree with me or call me a fool. Fed controls squat !. They are a slave to bond markets. They will follow the bond markets. It's the bond market that makes Fed look like genuises or fools. It's based on market cycles. Where were all the supporters of "Don't fight the fed" argument hiding when the market was falling off the cliff and the Fed was watching helplessly ? The markets were severly oversold and we were at the end of a down cycle with beaten down yields on the long bonds which enables the Fed to pump that massive liquidity. If the Fed tries the same stunt at the peak of a upmarket cycle, the bonds will crash - Period !. The Greeks look like clowns today. Tommorow, the same fate will hit America, if the drunken sailors don't rollback their spending plans and nonsense stimulus measures and buying of crappy assets. Otherwise, the oversupply in bonds will show the Fed as to who's the boss. The chinese are now entering an era of trade deficits for the first time this quarter. They ain't gonna buy U.S bonds with both their hands anymore. The drama is only beginning !

so true, so true!!

i would never call anyone a fool here--sorry if implied

yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????

[goldswinger]

fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ??????? Exactly and rates went through the roof (bond market reaction) , now their hands are tied and the bond market will continue doing what it does best ... police the money markets....... FED could still take down SPX and commodities, bond market would react lowering rates, FEd can then do something else. Bottom line is the FED and the bond market interact with each other, but FED has no absolute power, they plug a hole in the dyke and another will pop open, they plug it again and another will pop open, etc. GS.

[NAV]

yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????

What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.

[snorkels4]

yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????

What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.

isnt that quantitative easing or something like that

i am no expert

[Gary Smith]

yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????

What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.

The loudest bells I ever heard rung in my 44 years in the game was at the Fed 2008 meeting and the bond buying binge they said they were about to embark in the very near future and then at their March 2009 meeting when they said they had begun the buying. This has already been discussed here a few times in the past. So what did they achieve? December 2008 was the launch of the greatest junk bond rally in recorded history which continues unabated to this very day and March 2009 was the launch of one of the greatest 13 month stock market rallies in recorded history which also continues unabated to this very day.