when you are w/the trend sooner or later the tide comes in and lifts your boat. the time is ripe now. mars in scorpio. i am looking for a mini run here to the end of the cycle 1325-1409. these times and circumstances are fraught w/uncertainty. and make no mistake sovereign debt is a large issue, which will not be resolved in a way to satisfy bond holders.
dharma, I find your target price for gold interesting. Raymond Merriman in his latest commentary (Mon, Sept 13th) has a price target for gold quite similar to yours. Merriman's price target for gold in October is $1,389.50 +/- $39.50 which gives us a target range of $1,350 to $1,429.
He thinks it's possible gold and silver will put in a short-term cycle low around Sept 23rd to 24th and then blast off because Mars enters Scorpio as of Sept 14th which has a 90% correlation to huge rallies in gold that last 2 to 5 weeks in duration. I like those odds. If gold can break out above $1,271 we are well on our way to new highs likely to occur between October 4th to October 26th, according to Merriman.
hi ken nice to see you posting. you and traderama add w/the astrological point of view. yes mars enters scorpio today and the huge arms sale to saudi arabia is indicative of that. my numbers are 1261 and 1277. new forever highs have been attained by gold. i am interested to see if silver also can attain new forever highs, my suspicion is that it will. i am also curious to see if the cycle lengthens in time.
dharma
Hi Dharma,
AGain, congrats on your conviction with your cycle work. As a reminder, the weekly $hui is something to watch ...with the cup and handle that has developed last December..if it breaks out over 520 decisively, then it has a target of 850...it's getting close to it...and those targets you mentioned would most likely break it out.
I wonder if the elections matter on how high gold continues to year end. I think it could and it does line up with cycle top for October. I dont have my notes because they were on my calendar on outlook express and my computer crashed Friday after the market..so I'm on a new computer and doing some recall.(still hoping to get my info off of it)...but I also recall that ARmstrong had a forecast that if gold was going up into October...2011 wouldn't be as good..and if it was going down into October 2011 would be very good for gold. I remember you are calling for a good correction after this cycle too, is that right? Also, Merriman looking for a 111 week cycle low for gold and silver before Dec 15th...(Ken can verify that if that is still the same viewpoint).
Merriman has also said that a long term cycle in Silver often times unfolds when Jupiter or Saturn are in a mutable sign. Right now, Jupiter is retrograde in Pisces and goes direct Nov 2 till Jan 22. ...which as you know is a mutable sign...so somewhere there should be a good correction coming in Silver if I understand that correctly..most likely after a new 2006 hi..but it sure is looking like swiss cheese gaps with a parabolic rise..more than gold.
Does your cycle go to the end of October or September with a potential extension? I recall you once saying Sept but then mentioning the end of Oct if I got that right.
In Merriman's column he spoke about the first few days of this week with the Sagitarrius factor...so far it happend for the markets and metals. Maybe tomorrow the markets get another Sagitarrius factor but to the down side..especially seeing we are in option expiry...and the games they play
Good trading
TM
markets are living entities. i have to remind myself of that so i dont get static in my approach. or start telling the market it should correct because of a certain cycle. what is typical bull market action is on my hourly charts , i use a 9bar wilder rsi and have since i started trading. it avoids most whipsaws and will keep you w/the trend. so, w/that in mind the hourly charts of hui/xau have had divergences. which were taken out w/todays upthrust. typical bull market action. wxman posted a chart some time ago w/the 850 hui projection. and here we are close to the breakout. i have no idea what will cause gold to have such giddyap, but there is a litany of items one can point to. i also want to mention that venus goes retrograde on october 8th. and that occurrence causes market reversals. as does the start of diwali, which begins oct 8th. so, painting that picture, i am looking for a top the 1st few days of october. however, i am open to it extending. i am long and on margin. so i will peel stuff away into the top.
i thought that i was done buying but san gold has hourly divergences and a close below 3.42 will give it daily divergences so i am mighty tempted!!!!!!!!!
the swiss franc @parity w/the dollar is very significant.
as a reminder for you dollar bulls. when roosevelt called in all the gold . it was repriced from 20 to $35 dollars. that meant for all us citizens the value of their money was approximately cut in 1/2 in relation to gold. in todays case they have to finance the debt. revaluation of the dollar will take place @some point.When????? i have no idea. just remember gold=money dollar =debt.
dharma
"Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." ~ Mark Twain
Edited by dharma, 14 September 2010 - 02:19 PM.