128 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

When it comes to secular bull markets (and only secular bull markets), only a very small percentage will be able to beat buy-and-hold, based on what I've seen.

Dharma, your words always provide a nice reminder of the importance of grabbing the secular bull and holding on as much as possible.

Timing based on cycles will only work to a degree, from what I can tell, when it comes to a secular trend - and may best be suited for for applying and removing top-up positions (or margin) as opposed to core investment positions.

these are wise words, i dont think anyone will beat the buy and hold.its why no matter what i hold 85% of what money i have. most of the top analysts will wind up soaking wet. @what point in 79 i realized i was buying back @higher prices. this is a mini run right here right now. the market works off the overbought condition, by consolidating and then moving higher. i am still on margin. nervous, but that comes w/the territory.
traderama- i have noticed a tendency in this market for gold to make highs into the full moon. i do think we could see some kind of turn thursday/friday.
gann founds seasonals important. thursday starts autumn. this still has more time. so, i am deferring to the harmonics.
some dead wood is being removed. however, using the strength in the sector to adios some poor holdings. the portfolio needs constant attention. some managements dont deliver. and some juniors run into problems getting permits etc.
those of you who have floundered around and have not had the time or inclination to study markets. your opportunity to participate is coming in the 4th quarter. take a seat on the bulls back and see if you can ride/hang on into the parabolic. i dont think this correction will be a V like 08. i think it chews up more time. do your research. study what you are thinking of buying. your competition is well prepared. they have been doing this longer. and probably have more money. its why guys like soros say anything. and do the opposite. @his last statement of bubble , he used the opportunity to double down. do your own work. have your own convictions. no one wants you to ride the bull . remember: gold =money fiat=debt. so when you sell, now you are in fiat.
now what? have a plan
dharma

Dharma,
When you say "your opportunity to participate in the 4th qtr"..(I own the physical and will hold that for years but since around Aug's lows been holding gld)...does that mean an extension beyond Oct for your current cycle or a new cycle? Merriman is looking for a 111 week low by mid Dec...(at least that was in his forecast book)

thanks

TM

[dharma]

When it comes to secular bull markets (and only secular bull markets), only a very small percentage will be able to beat buy-and-hold, based on what I've seen.

Dharma, your words always provide a nice reminder of the importance of grabbing the secular bull and holding on as much as possible.

Timing based on cycles will only work to a degree, from what I can tell, when it comes to a secular trend - and may best be suited for for applying and removing top-up positions (or margin) as opposed to core investment positions.

these are wise words, i dont think anyone will beat the buy and hold.its why no matter what i hold 85% of what money i have. most of the top analysts will wind up soaking wet. @what point in 79 i realized i was buying back @higher prices. this is a mini run right here right now. the market works off the overbought condition, by consolidating and then moving higher. i am still on margin. nervous, but that comes w/the territory.
traderama- i have noticed a tendency in this market for gold to make highs into the full moon. i do think we could see some kind of turn thursday/friday.
gann founds seasonals important. thursday starts autumn. this still has more time. so, i am deferring to the harmonics.
some dead wood is being removed. however, using the strength in the sector to adios some poor holdings. the portfolio needs constant attention. some managements dont deliver. and some juniors run into problems getting permits etc.
those of you who have floundered around and have not had the time or inclination to study markets. your opportunity to participate is coming in the 4th quarter. take a seat on the bulls back and see if you can ride/hang on into the parabolic. i dont think this correction will be a V like 08. i think it chews up more time. do your research. study what you are thinking of buying. your competition is well prepared. they have been doing this longer. and probably have more money. its why guys like soros say anything. and do the opposite. @his last statement of bubble , he used the opportunity to double down. do your own work. have your own convictions. no one wants you to ride the bull . remember: gold =money fiat=debt. so when you sell, now you are in fiat.
now what? have a plan
dharma

Dharma,
When you say "your opportunity to participate in the 4th qtr"..(I own the physical and will hold that for years but since around Aug's lows been holding gld)...does that mean an extension beyond Oct for your current cycle or a new cycle? Merriman is looking for a 111 week low by mid Dec...(at least that was in his forecast book)

thanks

TM

i have no idea if the cycle extends or not, and when the signals are there into the cycle top , i cut exposure. and whenever this market gets oversold on a daily or hourly (depending upon the circumstances) w/divergences i am a buyer. can my buy points sometimes suck?! yes, that is the beauty of a bull market,
sooner or later the tide comes in and lifts your boat. dont mistake genius for a bull market. simple as that!
phase3 of the bull will be quite speculative. and the swings will be much bigger. if you havent had the chimichangas to hang on now, you will stand no chance later on. study the inflationary phase of 79 for all commodities., thier charts will set you straight. leave no stones uncovered. study all bulls of the last 20years and greespan blew more than his share of bubbles. knowledge is power. w/o you are dead meat.
the banksters have 100 of 100 winning trades. and ywe are swimming in the waters w/these sharks. study markets. elliott died broke. prechter will bring you to poverty. eventually we will have the deflationary depression. but, its a ways off
dharma

Edited by dharma, 17 September 2010 - 01:58 PM.

[dharma]

learn from your mistakes, if you are not on board , go back over your thought process'. this is about learning. follow the market. this is a mini run here, a sampling of what is to come in speculative phase 3. there will be limit up days. and volatility will be frightening. i have a stable of explorers, which i am peeling away into the strength. volume is thin on these and i want to sell into strength while there is more volume. still on margin, not doing anything in a hurry. this leg has more to go. and will not end w/a whimper. in the end, last time i traded w/ a bunch of guys a few missed the move from 425-887 and were depressed for quite some time. sure bull markets occur all the time. riding them is the key. trading on a daily basis year after year will take its toll on the body. my strategy has been to hit it out of the park and not have to do this on a daily basis. in 87 in sept when the spx made alower high i sold futures and in one glorious day, i did nt look @charts again till 2k. i believe this is that kind of opportunity. the soundness of all fiat is going to come into question. gold=money , not debt. do what you are comfortable w/. dont get greedy. comfort is key dharma

[stubaby]

learn from your mistakes, if you are not on board , go back over your thought process'. this is about learning. follow the market. this is a mini run here, a sampling of what is to come in speculative phase 3. there will be limit up days. and volatility will be frightening. i have a stable of explorers, which i am peeling away into the strength. volume is thin on these and i want to sell into strength while there is more volume. still on margin, not doing anything in a hurry. this leg has more to go. and will not end w/a whimper.
in the end, last time i traded w/ a bunch of guys a few missed the move from 425-887 and were depressed for quite some time. sure bull markets occur all the time. riding them is the key. trading on a daily basis year after year will take its toll on the body. my strategy has been to hit it out of the park and not have to do this on a daily basis. in 87 in sept when the spx made alower high i sold futures and in one glorious day, i did nt look @charts again till 2k. i believe this is that kind of opportunity.
the soundness of all fiat is going to come into question. gold=money , not debt. do what you are comfortable w/. dont get greedy. comfort is key
dharma

dharma:

Appreciate ALL your comments - Wise words indeed!

stubaby

[dharma]

learn from your mistakes, if you are not on board , go back over your thought process'. this is about learning. follow the market. this is a mini run here, a sampling of what is to come in speculative phase 3. there will be limit up days. and volatility will be frightening. i have a stable of explorers, which i am peeling away into the strength. volume is thin on these and i want to sell into strength while there is more volume. still on margin, not doing anything in a hurry. this leg has more to go. and will not end w/a whimper.
in the end, last time i traded w/ a bunch of guys a few missed the move from 425-887 and were depressed for quite some time. sure bull markets occur all the time. riding them is the key. trading on a daily basis year after year will take its toll on the body. my strategy has been to hit it out of the park and not have to do this on a daily basis. in 87 in sept when the spx made alower high i sold futures and in one glorious day, i did nt look @charts again till 2k. i believe this is that kind of opportunity.
the soundness of all fiat is going to come into question. gold=money , not debt. do what you are comfortable w/. dont get greedy. comfort is key
dharma

dharma:

Appreciate ALL your comments - Wise words indeed!hui/xau new highs for the move . hourly divergences gone. take note . this is bull market action. unfortunately, oacillators get one out to early in a bull. it is a key tool for me, one i have to watch w/ a grain of salt in the bull
dharma

stubaby

thanks stubaby, lets ride this bull.
dharma
ps. dougie i dont drink alcohol. but , thanks for the offer

Edited by dharma, 20 September 2010 - 11:26 AM.

[dougie]

make that sushi dinner then

[dharma]

yum!


the aden sisters, interesting to me that they mention, gold hasnt had a steep correction in 2years, i think one is right around the corner
http://www.321gold.c...aden092010.html

clive maud
http://www.clivemaun...e.php?art_id=68

exit harry shultz. this guy has been provacative his whole career. he will be missed
http://www.marketwat...bear-2010-09-16

[swanstkdh]

I am holding and yay! another sober trader. that is cool. I remember septembers as being good time to be holding and Oct. early good times to not be. thanks for being so brave and doing your own thinking

[dharma]

we are into the run. oscillators over bought. there is some boiling in the sector. this isnt a time to be buying. i am off margin. i have been lightly selling into strength. i am much more comfortable w/where i am @now. i dont know what other analysts are thinking or what they watch. i try to stay focused on the market. and like everyone else, sometimes we all get it wrong. it has been 2 years since a meaningful correction, and one is around the corner,imho. i will raise cash into months end. and then i will take a look and see what the market is saying. it speaks in a different tongue, so sometimes it is difficult to understand. we have had a good unrelenting move here, which has been quite profitable. and notice today gold is down a couple of bucks and the miners are down more %wise. the miners are still underloved and underappreciated . as the game progress' this will change. i am noticing more people have turned their eyes towards gold. interest is perking up. it will eventually turn into plunging in. and @that point mistakes are erased by someone else lack of astuteness. i do think this has more to go. i have some cross currents thursday/friday i want to see how that plays out. but i do expect a strong finish into months end. be careful. trade safe dharma

[dharma]

oh and by the way, my target of 1325-1341 is still on top of my radar screen dharma